Study On Prediction,Assessment And Postmortem Analysis Of Flight Delays

With the rapid development of China's civil aviation industry, the problem of flight delays in China is getting worse and worse. In order to recognize the development trend, the real-time status and the responsible unit of flight delays, it is necessary to get on the study on prediction, assessment and postmortem analysis of flight delays, to speed up the evacuation and reduce the losses of flight delays, and prevent more large-scale flight delays from happening.In delay prediction area, predicting large-scale flight delays from the perspective of airspace was presented, compared the development of flight delays to the development of biological populations in nature, prediction method for the number of delayed flights and the cumulative time of delayed flights based on logistic model was given, and the logistic curve was fitted by actual flight delays data.In delay evaluation area, considering the time and the scope of delay, evaluation indicators were given and a real-time evaluation indicator system for flight delays was established, and a real-time evaluation model for the level of flight delays based on the combination of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was built.In delay postmortem analysis area, the postmortem analysis network planning of flight delays was obtained and the postmortem analysis indicators were given by analyzing the process of flights running, and a two-layer postmortem analysis indicator system was built by classifying these indicators into different responsibility units. A model of postmortem analysis for large-scale flight delays based on flight operation process was established to identify the first delay indicator and the subsequent delay indicator according to flight schedules and flight actual operating data and to determine the main responsible unit of flight delays by calculating the responsibility order and time of delay of each indicator with weights.