Research On Risk Management Of Operation Period To Build A Large Complicated Multi-Channel Traffic Project

The application of more and more long-span bridges has made great contribution to the development of social economy and the construction of traffic projects. And at the same time, the problem of prompt solution is how to improve their anti-risk ability in the operation period.Large-scaled, complicated and multi-channel traffic projects (three bridges built together) that relate to three different fileds like railway, highway, municipal road etc, are exceptional cases in China or even unprecedented all over the world for the invovled complex technologies and difficult operations. Also, the technical standards, construction norms and control indexes need to be studied separately; there are some other problems in the construction management such as who will be in executive charge of the project approval, who will be the owner and who will be the supervisor and organizer for the completion and acceptance. Even the risk management in the operation period can follow no precedent.Situated in the research background of multi-channel joint projects in the north of Wenzhou Oujiang and Xihoumen Bridge, this paper aims to do the following research:It is based on the management system of bridge accidents happened in history, comparing and analyzing each commonly used risk identification by consulting large amount of literature. Also, it comes up with a method combining the accident tree method and the analytic hierarchy process to distinguish the risk sources for large complex multimodal transportation project in its operation period. Meanwhile, it sorts out the main risk sources, laying the foundation for risk management in the operation period.It investigates into detail the risk management for Three Bridges Built-together project in its operation period by conducting questionaires. Therefore, it is to build up an evaluation index system of risk management for this project in the operation period, to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the current risk evaluation method, to put forward a research method combining quantitative and qualitative analysis for the consolidation and analysis of the data obtained from the questionnaires.Also, this research conducts its statistic analysis by using the present Factor Analysis Model and SPSS analysis software to analyze the risk factors of Three Bridges Built-together Project in its operation period. It tries to find out the key factor influencing the risk management in the operation period of this project, and to provide profound basis for the analysis of countermeasures control in the later part.The research aims to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for key factors that may influence the management risk of Three Bridges Built-together Project in its operation period, to establish and perfect the benefit coordination mechanism and the risk-response mechanism, and to improve the risk sharing mechanism and establish the risk prevention and control system for the reduction of management risk in the operation period of the project.The papre conducts researches into the situation of structure safety evaluation for long-span bridges in their operation periods, and puts forward a risk-evaluation system of structure safety and process based on RVM, in which the relevance vector machine regression algorithm is introduced. Meanwhile, it tends to adopt genetic algorithm for optimization of the traditional relevance vector machine regression algorithm, which eliminates the disadvantages of traditional relevance vector machine regression algorithm.To forecast the key parameters of management risk in the operation period of long-span bridges by using the relevance vector machine algorithm optimized by genetic algorithm, the current research takes Xihoumen Bridge as its research object for test and analysisThe paper comes up with a method of grey theory risk evaluation improved in the operation period for long-span bridges, and establishes accordingly a grey theory evaluation model based on the predictive data for key parameters of management risk. The aim is to provide accurate evaluation of the structure safety risk for large-span bridges during the operation through example analysis.The research constructs the overall structure and its function model of the structure safety risk evaluation system for large-span bridges during the operation period, on which base to design its system database and describe the system interface, and ultimately establish the whole system of structure risk evaluation of large-span bridges during its operation.It can provide guidance for risk management of similar complicated multi-channel traffic projects in the operation period, thus embracing great theoretical and practical significance.