Study On The Method Of Collaborative Assessment Of Traffic Operation Multisource Risk For Big Event

With the rapid development of economy,the number and scale of big events have continued to increase.Big events gather huge people and vehicles in short period,which results in great traffic operation risks.Current research on traffic operation risk of big events mainly focuses on accidents.There is a lack of overall analysis on the traffic operation risks,and the differences between big events traffic and conventional traffic is not reflected.Based on the characteristics of big event traffic operation,the collaborative assessment method for multisource risk of traffic operation is researched,and theoretical basis and technical support for the prevention and control of risks is provided,which has important practical significance.Starting from the concept and characteristics of big events,the characteristics of transportation demand and transportation services for big events is analyzed,and the differences between them and daily activities are pointed out.Based on the definition of "risk",combined with the traffic operation goals of big events,the Safety risk,punctuality risk,reliability risk and convenience risk are determined as the specific connotations of traffic operation risks.On the basis of clarifying the specific connotation of traffic operation risks in big events,the sources of traffic operation risks and their hierarchical manifestations are analyzed,and the causes,targets and impacts of different risks are explored;in accordance with the principle of comprehensive,goal-oriented,scientific,representative and practical,a index system is constructed for big events traffic operation risk assessment,by risk factor summary analysis,preliminary screening and indicator screening based on gray rough setsBased on the requirements of multi-source risk collaborative assessment of big event traffic operation,a fuzzy Bayesian network that focuses on quantitative analysis and can consider multiple risk factors is choosed;ISM is used to analyze the mechanism of action between different risk factors,the obtained directed topology graph is used as the structure input of the fuzzy Bayesian network;combined with the actual scene and the characteristics of each node,the number of possible states and the specific meaning of each node in the fuzzy Bayesian network are determined;take the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics as a specific research scenario,the conditional probability of each node in the fuzzy Bayesian network is determined through methods such as data collection and expert evaluation;Netica software is used to observe the joint impact of different risk factors on the traffic operation risk of big events.