The Research On Comprehensive Evaluation Of Schedule Risk Based On Fuzzy Mathematics

As an engineering construction project which have national key support, the large-scale water conservancy and hydropower project has been playing a major role in power generation, flood control, irrigation, navigation and so on. So it plays a decisive role in national economic development. The large-scale water conservancy project has large investment and long construction period. The large schedule risk is very difficult to control and also has the biggest probability of occurrence during the construction period. Factors affecting the schedule risk has the feature of various and complex. So it is very necessary to analyze and evaluate the schedule risk of the water conservancy project then take effective measures guard against it. It is also of great significance for achieving the overall benefits of the project.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics.is a more comprehensive and reliable method which can evaluate the impact on the risk more detailed and more reasonable.This paper introduces the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation into its risk assessment in hydraulic engineering and has done a thorough research based on the previous studies. On one hand, it analyzes the advantages and disadvantages and applicability of the different methods of weights determined. It selects a more appropriate method called fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to determine the weight according to the characteristics of the evaluated objects.On the other hand, this paper discusses the risk factors from different sources in detail in the establishment of schedule risk evaluation modeLIt also establishes a relatively perfect evaluation index system and evaluation hierarchy of schedule risk. Finally, the giving example demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the method in the schedule risk evaluation.This article uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the schedule risk and establishes the risk evaluation model of water conservancy project. Firstly,it establishes the hierarchy and indicators of schedule risk evaluation system. It gets fuzzy consistent matrix on the basis of the principle of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process then achieves results of weights from Matlab program; Secondly, it uses triangular fuzzy function to calculate the membership of risk indicators according to the actual situation of the projectFinally, it draws completion probability and risk probability by fuzzy synthetic.lt can be found that the result from this paper’s method is more reliable and closer to the engineering practice by comparison with the traditional evaluation method. It can be concluded that fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is scientific and applicable to the schedule risk evaluation large-scale water conservancy projects by combining the theory and examples.It is worth mentioning that the choose of determined weights method and establishment of more comprehensive risk evaluation system which makes the model more comprehensive has an important impact on the final evaluation results.