Development On Risk Assessment And Warning System Of High Earth-rock Dam During Engineering Design And Operation Period

Earth-rock dam occupies an important in the national economy and life. Once the accident has occurred, the immensurable loss will be bought to people in the dam and downstream area. Especially for the high earth-rock dam with large reservoir capacity and installed capacity, the influence brought by the accident will be more wider and deeper. Also the loss will be more larger. By combining with the related theory and method in the field of risk assessment and warning, the risk assessment and warning system of high earth-rock dam engineering survey design and operation period is developed.(1) Based on the information of survey design stage, the three-dimensional visualization model is established. Through the technology of database, the information for safety monitoring is stored and shared. Then the high earth-rock dam safety monitoring information model is gotten. Also, the structure of data table and expression way of visualization are in detailed description.(2) Based on the real-time monitoring data, the real-time evaluation method of high earth-rock dam measured is raised. A comprehensive assessment index system of high earth-rock dam measured is established. In view of the different bottom evaluating index, according to the empirical method and mathematical statistics, the monitoring standards is determined. Using analytic hierarchy process, the dynamic weight is determined. Considering the index danger degree of fuzziness in the process of change. the real-time evaluation method of high earth-rock by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is realized.(3) Failure probability is expressed by observed behavior safety grade. And according to the empirical formula to crash damage estimates both at home and abroad, loss of life, economic losses and social environmental impact are normalized processing via by using equivalent method to ensure the loss level. The risk matrix method for risk assessment is put forward by the high earth-rock dam measured characteristic safety level and risk accident loss level as an index. Based on the result of evaluation of risk early warning, timely and effective engineering or non-engineering measures are taken to minimize risk.(4) Taking Nuozhadu hydroelectric plant as an example,the risk assessment and warning system of high earth-rock dam engineering survey design and operation period is developed. The system includes a total of four modules, namely: System information management module, monitoring information management module, risk assessment module and risk early-warning module.