National Security Strategic Risk Identification Based On Signal Analysis

With the global development in economy, politics and culture, various strategic risks such as domestic risks and international risks, are correlated increasingly with each other, with the possibilities of inter-conversion. Domestic risks of one nation, the important ones in particular, tend to cause a wide range of international influences and even international risks which, especially the serious ones, will undoubtedly result in a nation’s internal security or domestic crisis. In order to avoid serious consequences, it is necessary to scan, monitor, identify, interpret and evaluate those risks beforehand. Based on perfect combination of signal analysis and risk identification, this dissertation analyzes the strategic risks from the perspective of intelligence studies, employing relevant theories and methodologies of signal analysis. Besides, the dissertation is to build a strategic risk identification evaluation index system on the basis of risk early warning theories, and to monitor and identify the competitive environment surrounding the nation, its resources and capacity, which is helpful to avoid corresponding crisis and risks, and to enhance the core competitiveness. Therefore, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) It elaborates the concepts and of signal and signal analysis in the field of intelligence studies; illustrates the relationship among signal, information and intelligence; clarifies the concepts of strategic risks and national security strategic risk; discusses the basic theories referring to the signal analysis in strategic risk identification--about the forecast of competitive reaction and the ecological rationale; and it expounds how signal transmission, signal capture and signal analysis to affect strategic risk identification. (2) Based on the theory of risk signal identification, it proposes strategic risk early warning model from the operating level, considering the complexity and uncertainty of the national security strategic risk identification; Based on the mechanism analyzing of signal formation, it establishes a signal analysis model and a strategic risk identification framework, combined with the process of strategic risk identification. Then, it analyzes the process of strategic risks formation and presents signal analysis techniques and methodologies of strategic risk identification.(3) It analyzes the fundamental part of the strategic risk identification framework for-strategic risk formation mechanism; it introduces the generation and growth process of signal risk, as well as the indicators and dimension of early warning signals; and it further defines the elements of strategic risk identification.(4) It relates to the core part in the strategic risk identification framework--the identification and interpretation of risk signal; clarifies the principles and approaches of risk identification and constructs the risk identification process based on the signal accumulation, signal integrity, signal confirmation, as well as the model of signal scanning and monitoring; and it analyzes the processes of the model from such three angles as the source, surveillance and analysis. Finally, it puts emphasis on risk event analysis process used in Chapter Six.(5) It builds a prototype about risk signal scanning using a series of analytical methods including event analysis in International relations, knowledge map, social network analysis, fragmental intelligence analysis, and intelligence topics puzzle and so on; with the help of analysis tools such as Ucinet, SPSS, it selects information sources from People’s Daily, People’s Daily Overseas Edition, Nhan Dan, Philippine Star and The Wall Street Journal to monitor and interpret the possible risk signals from South China Sea conflict.National security strategic risk illustrated in this dissertation mainly refers to Intelligence Studies particularly involved in the empirical part of the South China Sea issue which is a sub-category of homeland security intelligence. National security strategic risk identification is used to identify and analyze risk signals one country encountered which could be discussed through signal analysis theory and methodology such as all-source intelligence and fragmental intelligence analysis. The possible innovations in this dissertation include:(1) Signal analysis is applied to formulate the elements of the national security strategic risk, analyze the risk events and construct the strategic risk identification model that enriches the application of Intelligence Studies.(2) Risk signal identification model is used to analyze the conflicts in the South China Sea and to support national security decision-making from the point of Intelligence Services.