| The prevention of atmospheric pollution is not only the need of environmentalprotection, but also the needs of the transformation and upgrading of economicdevelopment and a livelihood project. Geared to the needs of social and economicdevelopment in the strategic transformation, the new air quality standards and the pressingneeds of the regional atmospheric compound pollution prevention, with atmosphericpollutants total amount control and low carbon development as the starting point and thefoothold. This paper orientes to collaborative reduction in cities energy flow and carbonflow system analysis model and case study, which provides the public product of fresh air,optimize the urban industrial structure and energy structure, and promote life consumptionpatterns provide scientific, accurate, quantitative, effective tools and decision-makingmodel, to accelerate the city air quality standards and continuous improvement process,protect the public health and ecological safety, to provide comprehensive science andtechnology support.This paper studies on cities energy flow-carbon flow, the inner running mechanism ofcarbon flow system, depicting the city energy flow and carbon flow process. In the processof atmospheric pollution, this paper identifies the influence factors the emissions, anddetermines the key factors of system optimization scheme, and at the same time, establishesthe model of laboratory, through the system simulation to predict the atmospheric pollutioncontrol measures and the response mechanism of emission reduction effect.First, to represent urban system of energy input, processing and conversion, outputprocess, this paper studies the city can flow graph drawing. On the basis of the energy flowdiagram, this paper adds the requirement of low carbon development. According to the listof greenhouse gas emissions of CO2emissions calculation method, this paper draws theenergy flow-carbon flow diagram, which clearly shows carbon flowing process in theindustry.Secondly, based on the analysis of SO2, NOXand CO2emissions, from the aspects ofeconomy, society, environment, this paper lists21factors, which are the economicdevelopment, industrial structure, energy consumption, energy structure, population andgreening. A total of six aspects by artificial neural network method and principalcomponent regression analysis method, make up for each other, mutual authentication, obtained the internal influence mechanism of the network structure, thus get identify keyfactors affecting the universal model. In practice, it is only need to be21years of data inputfactor model, which can judge the key influencing factors. At the same time, based onartificial neural network model, through the function approximation method, get the keyinfluence factors on the sensitivity of the three kinds of pollutant emissions impact.Thirdly, through the method of multi-objective programming, this paper determines atotal of eight objective function which are the environmental objective function, theinvestment objective function, the total energy consumption of the objective function, anddemand, resource constraints, a total of two constraints conditions, and establishes the cityenergy flow–carbon flow collaborative optimization model to reduce emissions of carbonflow system, and according to the actual situation in our country this paper sets theparameters of the model. The model for atmospheric pollution control measures provides asimple, easy to operate, strong visibility of decision making tool, through a curve, andspace determine the solutions sets, to obtain the optimum space between governanceinvestment costs and emissions.Fourthly, this paper adopts system dynamics method, constructed the city energy flow-carbon flow system collaborative decision-making model simulation laboratory. In systemdynamics model, according to the urban system in energy input and output process, theadjustment of industrial structure, energy structure adjustment and motor vehicle ownershipadjustment behavior, the influence mechanism of atmospheric pollutants, cities energy flow-carbon flow system is established, including the industrial subsystem, power subsystem,environment subsystem and subsystem life consumption of four parts, and through the coalaccounts for the proportion of energy consumption, gas accounts for the proportion ofenergy consumption, electricity, heating power industry, such as the ratio of gasconsumption, the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP ratio of industry, petrochemicalindustry, metallurgical industry of industrial scale, the power industry accounted for, suchas motor vehicle ownership control variables of the industrial control, simulation system ofSO2, NOXand CO2evolution trend of atmospheric pollutants, as urban industrial structureoptimization and energy system optimization adjustmentFinally, in Tianjin, for example, this paper draws the Tianjin can flow-carbon flowgraph, and build on the main atmospheric pollutants emission in Tanjin impact mechanismanalysis model; Tianjin is obtained by multi-objective programming method, SO2, NOXand CO2emissions control the optimal decision of space; The system dynamics was used toconstruct the city of Tianjin energy flow-carbon flow system synergy reductiondecision-making model simulation laboratory, and carried out in Tianjin energy flow-carbon flow simulation system. |
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