| Land carries all kinds of city production and living activities.Greenhouse gas emissions,urbanization expansion,economic development,resource consumption and so on are closely related to land use..This paper integrates and measures the carbon emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources of different types of urban land use,and analyzes the land use carbon emissions,carbon sinks and carbon emissions intensity during 2002-2020 in Tianjin,as well as studying the decomposition research of the impact factors.The analysis research leads to the result of the change of land use carbon emissions in Tianjin and the role of its regulating and controlling factors,Then the system model simulation method is applied to analyze changes and possible regulation of each subsystem of land use carbon emissions system in Tianjin.By further studying the connection and running mechanism between system of urban economy,land use and carbon emissions,this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions to reduce land use carbon emissions in line with the need of city’s sustainable development.The main content of this research are as follows:(1)According to the actual needs of land use carbon emission reduction,the research topic is put forward,and the relevant research literature at home and abroad is reviewed,and the relevant research viewpoints,research methods and research conclusions are summarized,and then the deficiencies of the existing research are put forward.——For the systematic analysis of urban social economy and land use carbon emissions,the research on the interaction mechanism of each influencing factor needs to be strengthened.(2)In accordance with current theoretical and practical needs,this paper gives a definition to land use/cover change,land use carbon emissions,carbon source and carbon sink and carbon storage,energy consumption and low-carbon land use,meanwhile combs the sustainable theory,man-land relationship theory,system science theory and optional land allocation theory,which laid the theoretical foundation for this research.(3)The land use carbon emissions and sinks of Tianjin were measured to obtain the net carbon emissions according to the different land use types.Overall,the land use carbon emissions rose year by year,which increased from million tons to million tons between 2002 and 2020,with average growth rate per annum.Both the per unit land area of carbon emission intensity and per capital carbon emission intensity are increasing yearly.(4)According to the modeling steps of system dynamics,we determine the principle,purpose and system boundary of the model,and divide the system into five subsystems,which including Land Subsystem,Economic Subsystem,Population Subsystem,Energy Subsystem,and Environment Subsystem.Then,according to the relationship between the five subsystems and the feedback relationship among the variables,the Vensim software was used to establish the system dynamic model of the urban land use carbon emission,further to obtain the causal relationship diagram and flow chart of the urban land use carbon emission.(5)Based on the socio-economic historical data and the actual development situation of Tianjin,the relevant parameters and equations of the system dynamics model of land use carbon emission in Tianjin were determined to obtain the dynamic system model of land use carbon emission.And then test the model by visual and operational tests,historical tests and sensitivity analysis,which the results show that the model has good stability,and can be used to simulate the actual system.(6)According to the results of Tianjin urban land use carbon emission system dynamics simulation research which is introduced previously,combined with the actual situation of Tianjin’s economic and social development,countermeasures and suggestions on land use carbon emission reduction are presented.Those advices are given from the aspect of the economic system,population system,land system,energy system and environmental system. |
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