| Risk management of freeway investment project does not only concern with the success or not, influent the whole benefits of the investment project, and impact on the harmonious development of transportation systems of expressway, but also will bring the significant influence on the financial security, operation of macroeconomic healthy and the implementation of the development in a scientific way.Focus on the important role and the influence of freeway on economy and society, overheated situation of investment for some local freeways, invest exceed the specific demand, and serious lag of investment management research in China, this paper has studied the risk management of the investment project of the freeway deeply.In the past, the freeway investment risk management practice only confined to the different stages of project implementation and lack of specific requirements and standards. And the freeway investment risk theoretical studies divided to the construction, management and financial specific aspect, lack of systematic and comprehensive study. Risk management theory as an emerging discipline that introduced from abroad in 1980's has broad space and excellent prospect in innovation and application. So, the study has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the basic theories of enterprise ecosystem and by using of related theories and methods of system engineering, this paper analyzed and listed the main risks of freeway on the macro level, and then, constructed corresponding theory and method of risk analysis, assessment, prior alarming and responding for the project risk management of freeway investment based on the investment risk management of freeway.The main content in this paper are as follows.First, based on the risk management theory and ecological theory and enterprise ecosystem theory, the paper studied the applications of systems engineering theory and methods in the field of project risk management and analyzed the feasibility of applying the ecological systems theory to risk management and proposed ideas, methods and technical route for it.Second, this paper analyzed the properties of freeway such as natural property, social property and commercial property; introduced and classified the two main foreign investment modes in freeway that is focused on the government's investment model and investments in market-oriented input mode; analyzed the characteristics of freeway investment organization in China that included direct investment, indirect investment, Build-Operate-Transfer investment and franchising right transfer investment etc, studied the process-oriented project risk management condition. Based on large amounts of data and parameters of economy and society such as freeway mileage per territory area, freeway mileage per GDP, freeway mileage per population, freeway mileage per car, and matching factors of freeway scale to society and economy demand, this paper gave a development level comparative analysis between homeland and abroad. And more, this paper classified and studied the macro risk, financing risk, market risk; management risk, resource risk and environment protect risk that existed in freeway investment in China on the macro level.Third, based on the theory of ecological factors theory, this paper studied the freeway project investment risk factors, completed the factorization analysis for investment risk of freeway projects and then constructed the first and second level of risk factor system of freeway investment project. This paper also gave a variety of specific description for some ecological factors, and then presented the analysis of the relevant action mechanism.Fourth, based on theory of niche, the index and method system for analyzing the investment risk of freeway project was constructed; after the evaluation model of Fuzzy AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process), BP(Back propagation)neural network and DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) method construction, this paper also has set up the integrative evaluation model of investment risk for freeway projects, and then demonstrated these models.Fifth, this paper studied and set up a prior alarming and responding system for investment risk of freeway project. Firstly, based on the eco-matching theory, a prior alarm system of freeway project investment risk was set up and the risk advanced warring model was also built in this paper. Secondly, based on the niche regulation theory, the system to deal with investment risk of freeway project was set up. According to the main risks and their characteristics in different stages of the progress of freeway projects, this paper proposed some response measures that to deal with related risks, and then the table to deal with the investment risk of freeway projects were presented.Thirdly, this paper proposed the evaluation model of risk responding of freeway investment projects. At last, the complete system of risk responding of freeway investment project which consist of prior alarming system, responding system, and responding evaluation system was set up in this paper.The innovations in the paper presented are as follows:(1) Studied the feasibility and applied the ecological theory to the risk management in which the theory of ecological factors was used to the analysis of risk factors, the theory of ecological niche to risk evaluation, eco-matching theory to risk prior alarming and theory of niche regulation to risk responding, so the complete system framework of risk management based on the theory of ecological system was built in this paper at last.(2) Based on the calculating model of traditional sketch highway network, this paper presented the concept of matching factor for freeway scale, and gave the calculating model; through the comparison of freeway scale matching factors between China and developed countries, this paper get the strategy conclusions that the development level of Chinese freeway is similar to some developed countries, and there exists the over-hot phenomenon of investment in special development phase in some districts in China and these can provide method and data support for macro policy decision making and risk management.(3) The innovation on factor analysis: combined the ecological factor theory with the IDEF0 method to study and classify the risk factors of freeway investment project, this paper proposed the first grade and the second grade risk factor of the investment risk of freeway project and analyzed the correlation and interaction mechanism.(4) The innovation on risk evaluation method: the evaluation index system and method system of the investment risk of freeway project was set up on the basis of the theory of niche, and more, based on the comparison of AHP, the topology-varied neural network and DEA, this paper set up niche comprehensive evaluation model of freeway investment project.(5) The innovation on risk responding: the risk prior alarming system model of freeway project investment was set up based on the ecological matching theory; the risk responding system of freeway project investment on the niche regulation theory, and then this paper also have set up the risk responding system which consists of three stages: risk warning, the decision making of risk responding, the table of risk response and the evaluation of risk response.
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