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Research Of Frame Structure Of China's Nuclear Emergency Decision Support System And Evaluating Subsystem Fuzzy Decision-Making Method

Posted on:2002-03-14Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:N Z LuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1118360062480792Subject:Radiation protection and environmental protection
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The main sources of energy are kerosene and petroleum in today's world, which are but not renewable and decreasing in quantities due to increasing utilization by the mankind. In the meantime, such fuels will produce CO2 and oxides, which further give way to such undesired side effects as green-house effect and acid rain, which cause pollution on the ecological environment of the human kind. Therefore, many countries in the world are now working on research of and developing sources of nuclear energy, in order to put it an important channel of resolving the issue of short supply of energy in the future. As a matter of fact, practices have already proven that nuclear energy is quite a clean and safe source of energy, and has also considered as an evitable choice of meeting the both long and intermediate term supply of electricity and energy sources demanded by China. But it is a demanding and stringent job to make safe use of nuclear energy. Any emergency in use of nuclear energy will incur immense harm as a result. At present, people worldwide are doing research on how to utilize the existing sources to minimize the side effects as a result of nuclear accidents and the subsequent harm. ICRP60 documentation is one of the achievements upon this work so far. Besides, many nations have utilized computer's technology to do research on and develop the emergency decision-making supporting system in case of nuclear accidents. RODOS has been one of the research results, as it is able to assist the decision-makers to make correct decisions in case of nuclear accidents so as to bring down the unnecessary loss to a large extent. However, the nuclear emergency decision supporting system is a comprehensive system relating such fields of the society, nuclearengineering, politics, economy, ecological protection and radiation protection etc. Therefore, the development work of such a system is of great difficulty. So far, there has not been even a mature system of such function in the world. Relatively, the best operating one is the "RODOS" (real_time on_line decision support system) which was developed by the European Community. The RODOS starts from the calculation of source items and goes until selection of the optimum countermeasure strategies from the auxiliary decision-making items. However up to date, the 3rd Version RODOS announced by the EC publicly has only its contained two sub-systems (i.e. ASY and CSY) considered by the general public as relatively mature technologies; while the core ESY is now being developed. From the perspectives of what our country absorbed version RODOS 3.0, RODOS system structure is large, complex and of which source is simple and not very open, that restricted the popularity of application and are likely to be not very suitable for our country's nuclear power station operation. Therefore, to completely support our country's nuclear power station operation required establishment of a China's real-time on-line decision-making support system to shape the detailed circumstances of the country. So COSY, the major proportion of CRODOS, playing significant role in system construction shouldn't be ignored.Meanwhile, during the nuclear emergency decision-making system, there are many uncertain factors, such as social and public psychology factors etc. which are directly affecting the behaviors of the decision-makers. Therefore, it is highly essential to consider such factors in development of ESY. Across the world of today, in the field of nuclear emergency , the typical decision-making models are primarily traditional multi-attribute decision-making model types. In ESY conceptual structure of RODOS, the decision-making model is also the multi-attribute decision-making model. However, such a model only takes into account some certain factors, and do not touch uncertain factors such as social factor and public psychology etc., which are but of importance in the nuclear emergency decision-making system. Any decision on counter-measures to protect the public should be madebased upon th...
Keywords/Search Tags:nuclear emergency, decision support system, experts system, fuzzy decision-making, degree of membership, RODOS, nuclear emergency decision-making evaluation system ESY, unclear emergency decision-making operation system COSY
PDF Full Text Request
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