Research On The Development Of Industrial Cluster And Its Affection On Regional Economy

Industry Cluster is one of the most economic phenomena of the global economy map, and it has been seemed as one of critical ways to promote the regional economic level. It is needed to know the evolvement mechanism of industry cluster and study its growing effect for those who will develop regional economy by way of industry cluster. This research on the evolvement mechanism and growing effect of industry cluster is done from some different angles of the question by theory and method of system engineering in this thesis.Firstly, by evolutionary game theory, the thesis discusses the evolvement of industry cluster from the angle of whole life cycle. According to some realistic economic conditions that the income of some one is in strong correlation with the stage at that time he makes decision, the author advances one category of evolutionary game under strong correlation between individual pay-off and evolution stage, which is used to study evolution of industry cluster. Also by grey system theory, this model is extended to one category chain model of grey evolutionary game in condition that decision person is with limited knowledge and limited information. The thesis discusses its evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) with linear functions and symmetric pay-off matrix condition, and some important conclusions are found, that in some situations ESS could be gotten directly, but in other conditions ESS could not be worked out and it will be sensitive to initial condition. On the basis of these, this model is used to explain the success and failure of industry cluster, and an irradiative conclusion is gotten that in some situation industry cluster could be created by some ways.Secondly, the evolutionary process and stages of industry cluster is studied. Industry cluster could be seemed as an organism with life force and lifecycle, and the development of industry cluster goes through three states, from seed state, through core state, and then to cluster state. On the base of that, the conception of the rent of industry cluster is put forward, and the dynamic evolutionary model of it is established. Moreover according to change rate of the rent of industry cluster from simulation result of system dynamic model, the whole lifecycle of industry cluster should from seed state experience these phases, core growth phase, expand phase, mature phase, and decline or upgrade phase. It is discovered that during core growth phase, there exists a"bourgeon phase"or"difficult phase", which is critical to development of industry cluster. Based on the grow stages, using Grey Graphical Evaluation Review Technique(GERT), a GERT network model is built up to describe the process of formation and development of regional industry cluster, and the concepts of probability of being premature and probability of mature are proposed. Taking example of high-tech industry cluster, the probability of mature are discussed when support from government are provided at different stages of industry cluster. The conclusions account for the necessary and affection of government support. Moreover Grey Graphical Evaluation Review Technique (GERT in brief) Network is put forward and its model is built up, for that the method of GERT Network requires accurate parameters of action, and however, people usually can not find out exact value of parameters because of limited information of real life. By Grey GERT Network, many actions are easier to be described and discussed. This thesis defines several types of Grey GERT Network and searches for the approach to solution. And the estimating precision is advanced to measure the uncertainty of estimation on the condition that the degree of greyness can not be calculated.The problem of growing effect of industry cluster is research from two different visual angles. From micro angle, the enterprise alliance is the result of group decision-making of all members. So to enter an industry cluster is to attain an enterprise alliance, and the core of establishment of enterprise alliance is the profit allocation of the member. Based on model deducing from the axiom and character of Shapley value of cooperative game, author divides the result of player by Shapley value into two parts, one part is the income decided by the investment and capability of player, the other part is the benefit coming from the importance of player in alliance. And these two parts present the advantage of Shapley value that it includes the long-time and short-time factors,and universality of conclusion is also proved. And the definitions of rent of alliance and efficiency of alliance are advanced and the calculation methods are given. By discussing the example of enterprise alliance, it is found and proved that the key enterprise that holds competitive resource always gains the most quantity of rent of alliance. Then the thesis advances a method combined with Shapley value and group decision making model to solute the problem of the function of enterprise alliance in Shapley value model. Also the thesis sets up the model of Shapley value in the condition of uncertainty based on the incomplete information, finite knowledge and bounded rationality, and discusses the way to solution, based on which the overrating risk and the underrating risk of Shapley value model with parameter of interval number are put forward and defined, and measure methods are given. On the basis of these, a new kind of binary group decision-making problem is put forward.From the macro angle of view, the thesis stresses on the mutual affection of industry cluster and regional economic capability by quantitative analysis method. In order to measure the agglomerate degree of industry cluster and integrated agglomerate degree of region, two kinds of statistic index, including added value of industrial output and quantity of employment of industry are selected to build up measure model. Then the thesis puts forward the measure method of industry competition capability, also the definition and measure model of regional dynamic competition capability. By the improved C-D production function model, the contribution degree of industry cluster to industry competition capability is measured. And the grey relational analysis of integrated agglomerate degree of region and regional competition capability is analyzed. It is found that the integrated agglomerate degree of region and regional competition capability are under strong correlation.Finally, on the foundation of theory analysis on industry cluster, the thesis does case studies by two typical industry clusters: high-tech industry cluster of Beijing Zhongguancun Science Park (Z-Park) and Wenzhou industry cluster of shoes and leather. The development stages of these two industry clusters are discussed and existent of"difficult phase"are analyzed, and practical cases illuminate that it is necessary and significant and helpful for regional administrator to provide support to industry cluster especially at the"difficult phase"of core growth phase.However it must be claimed that the present study is only at its beginning stage, and the obtained results at present are expected to be verified in a larger scope of samples and more deeply theoretical studies. To research deeply the underlying evolution law of real-life industry cluster is the author's next goals.