| It is clearly pointed out in the 14 th Five-Year Plan for Tourism Development that the status of tourism as a strategic pillar industry of the national economy should be strengthened,and the building of a strong tourism country should be accelerated to achieve a higher quality,more efficient,fairer,more sustainable and safer development of the tourism industry.Tourism itself has the characteristics of low consumption and high efficiency,at the same time,it is closely related to the ecological environment.Therefore,it should be the “green” driving force of our economy and play an important role in the process of economic transformation.Depending on the close correlation between tourism and other industries,tourism plays a significant role in driving economic development.However,it is precisely this relationship and the strong environmental dependence of tourism itself that make it inevitably sensitive,vulnerable and other attributes.With the outbreak of COVID-19,the sustainable development of the tourism industry is under threat.In this context,the resilience of the tourism industry has become a focus of attention.Accurately evaluate the resilience level of tourism industry in different regions,and explore ways to improve the resilience of tourism industry in combination with the actual development status of tourism industry in different provinces,which not only highly fit the proposition of tourism transformation and upgrading in the new normal stage,but also provide policy guidance and useful reference for the healthy and sustainable development of new forms of tourism industry,and more effectively implement the“promoting green development,promoting harmonious coexistence between man and nature” contributes a new theoretical paradigm and analytical framework.Under the background of both theory and practice,this paper systematically studies the resilience measurement and promotion path of provincial tourism.On the basis of sorting out the existing researches at home and abroad,taking sustainable development theory,adaptive cycle theory,chaos theory and tourism destination life cycle theory as the theoretical basis,and taking “raising problems--analyzing problems--solving problems” as the logical main line,a research framework for spatial measurement of tourism resilience is established.Based on the panel data of China’s provinces from 2002 to 2020,this paper uses comprehensive evaluation index method,entropy method,Moran’I index method,Getis-Ord G* index cold and hot spot analysis,spatial econometric analysis and other empirical methods to measure the resilience of China’s provincial tourism industry and explore its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and spatial effects.Finally,the paper puts forward optimization paths and countermeasures to improve the resilience of tourism industry,in order to improve and enrich the existing research framework system on tourism development,and provide theoretical guidance and decision-making reference for the resilience improvement and high-quality development of tourism industry.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the concept of “evolutionary resilience”,the process of tourism system facing external disturbances can be divided into “pre-impact,in-impact,post-impact and long-term” stages.According to the performance of different stages,the resilience can be divided into “absorption,recovery and improvement” three stages,which concretively reflects four kinds of capabilities: resistance,recovery,adjustment and innovation.In this paper,the resilience of tourism industry is defined as the dynamic evolution process in which the tourism industry system can continuously absorb external disturbances to maintain a steady state in the face of various uncertain impacts,recover quickly in time when encountering huge impacts causing deformation,and continuously adjust its own system,learn and innovate in the long term to achieve positive interaction with external systems,so as to make itself able to withstand stronger impacts.(2)From 2002 to 2020,the evolution of resilience of Chinese tourism industry shows significant evolution law and imbalance in both time dimension and spatial pattern.The resilience of the tourism industry in the study area is advancing to the high level as a whole,going through three stages: germination(2002-2008),steady development(2009-2014)and basic formation(2015-2020).The study area was divided into east,central and west regions according to geographical location,and the evolution characteristics of tourism resilience in the three regions were basically the same over time,with an overall upward trend.According to the average resilience level of tourism in the same period,the three regions were ranked as eastern region >central region > western region.The evolution of the spatial pattern mainly presents three characteristics: First,the resilience of the national tourism industry is obviously divided into high and low levels,from east to west,experiencing a trend of “high grade to low grade”.Second,the areas of high grade toughness are mainly the eastern coastal areas and the western provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan,and the scope is gradually expanding.Third,there are provinces that are always ahead or behind their neighboring regions in terms of tourism resilience,showing a “ladder shape” and a“basin shape” with their neighboring regions.(3)The resilience of Chinese tourism industry has significant global and local spatial autocorrelation characteristics.From the perspective of spatial integrality,tourism resilience has a positive spatial agglomeration effect,with obvious spatial disequilibrium.Local spatial autocorrelation studies show that the high-value cluster areas of tourism resilience are mainly distributed in the eastern and central regions,and gradually expand to the west and north.The low-value cluster area is mainly distributed in the western region,and the range gradually shrinks to the west.(4)The resilience of Chinese tourism industry has significant spatial spillover effect.The spatial econometric regression results show that tourism resilience has a significant spatial spillover effect,and the resilience level of regional tourism is not only affected by its own factors,but also affected by the spatial spillover effect of neighboring regions.Specifically,four factors including regional economic base,rationalization of industrial structure,urbanization level,infrastructure construction and afforestation level can be used as driving factors of both the province and the neighboring province.The three factors of industrial structure upgrading,opening to the outside world and environmental regulation directly promote the resilience of regional tourism,but do not significantly affect the resilience level of tourism in neighboring provinces.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes the following optimization approaches to improve the resilience of the tourism industry: First,based on the spatial differences in the resilience of the tourism industry,pay attention to regional cooperation in the tourism industry.Second,optimize the efficiency of tourism resource allocation through policy guidance.Third,strengthen green leadership and promote the low-carbon development model of tourism.Fourth,we should take advantage of scientific and technological development to stimulate new driving forces for tourism development.Fifth,we should take the “express train” of opening-up to enhance the international competitiveness of tourism.Sixth,improve the accessibility of tourism transportation and optimize tourism routes.Seventh,continue industrial integration and innovate tourism development formats.The possible innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of research,based on the dynamic theoretical framework of “evolutionary resilience”,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the resilience of tourism industry from a complete perspective,which is more comprehensive than previous studies,from the perspective of the whole process of pre-impact,in-impact,post-impact and long-term.(2)In terms of research content,this paper constructs and measures the resilience index evaluation system of provincial tourism industry,so that the resilience development level of tourism industry among different provinces can be comparable.Based on the measurement,this paper explores the spatio-temporal evolution,spatial agglomeration characteristics and influencing factors of provincial tourism resilience.(3)This paper finds that there is a spatial imbalance in the resilience of provincial tourism,which provides theoretical support for breaking through the limitations of provincial administrative regions in the tourism operation and planning process and strengthening regional tourism cooperation,which is conducive to the coordinated development of inter-regional tourism. |
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