| With the expansion of economic scale and the rise of complexity,the regional economic system often faces the impact of various uncertainties,the complex and changeable internal and external environment will have an uncertain impact on the stability of the economic system.Therefore,how to maintain the stability of the economic system in the changeable environment and improve the economic system in the face of shocks or recovery ability becomes increasingly important.The research on resilience in current academic circles is essentially to improve the ability of cities to cope with uncertain external shocks and minimize the impact of potential risks and shocks,so as to ensure high-quality,stable and sustainable growth of regional economy.This paper chose the Yangtze river delta urban agglomeration as the research area,based on the evolution of regional economic resilience concept both at home and abroad,the factors influencing measure analysis and the related research of induction,According to the Outline of the Yangtze River Delta Regional Integrated Development Plan,a comprehensive evaluation index system of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region has been established,which includes 16 indicators including economic growth,resources and environment,social development and scientific and technological innovation.The extreme value entropy method are used to estimate the urban economic resilience value of 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020.Based on the results of the economic resilience evaluation,the temporal evolution characteristics of urban economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are comprehensively analyzed.Secondly,the regional economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta are classified into four categories according to the natural breaking point classification method of Arc GIS based on the data of 2010,2013,2016 and 2020.Furthermore,the spatial evolution characteristics of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region are analyzed.Then,this paper used global and local spatial correlation to analyze the spatial structure characteristics of the regional economic resilience in Yangtze River Delta.Finally,the gravity center method is used to analyze the migration of the economic resilience center in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to2020.Further,using the spatial measurement method of spatial overlap and consistency of change analyzed the factors that affected the economic resilience of 41prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze river delta.And put forward policy recommendations on this basis to improve the economic resilience of Yangtze River Delta cities from different angles.The main conclusions are as follows:1.Temporal evolution characteristics of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerationOn the whole,the economic resilience of the 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta gradually increased during the study period,and the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta generally increased.However,due to the influence of internal and external factors,the growth rate of the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta showed a fluctuating process.In terms of regional development characteristics,the 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta have significant differences in economic resilience,which indicates that the urban development in different provinces in the Yangtze River Delta is seriously unbalanced.At each criterion level,the economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta has increased at each criterion level during the study period,but the development of the resilience level among each criterion level is not balanced,and the resilience of different regions is significantly different.2.Spatial characteristics of economic resilience in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration(1)The economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta region is not balanced on the whole,and the economic resilience of cities in different regions is obviously different.The high value region of regional economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta keeps expanding,while the low value region of regional economic resilience gradually decreases,and the spatial pattern of regional economic resilience in the province keeps changing.(2)The spatial agglomeration of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta presents a process of "first agglomeration and then dispersion".In 2010,the urban agglomeration did not show the characteristics of spatial clustering,but showed a certain randomness.To some extent,it indicates that with the further development of the integration of the Yangtze river delta,the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze river delta tends to be balanced.In addition,the impact of COVID-19 has also prompted provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta region to strengthen information resource sharing,cross-border coordinated development and interactive policy consultation on the basis of joint prevention and control of the epidemic,so as to further promote the balanced development of the whole Region.According to LISA clustering,the local spatial agglomeration pattern of economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2010 to 2020 is relatively stable,and the spatial structure presents a locking feature on the whole.(3)Based on the the gravity center method,it is found that the center of gravity of regional economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2020 has shifted toward the northwest due to the continuous improvement of the economic resilience of cities in northern Jiangsu province and prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province.Using the spatial measurement method of spatial overlap and consistency of change,this paper explores the correlation between the spatial pattern of economic resilience and four criteria layers in the Yangtze River Delta region,and finds that economic growth indicators have a closer impact on regional economic resilience.Secondly,the index of social development;The third is the index of scientific and technological innovation,and the impact of this index on regional economic resilience is significantly enhanced;Resource and environment indexes have the least influence.Finally,based on the spatial analysis of the influencing factors of regional economic resilience,the strategies for improving regional economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta are proposed from different perspectives. |
