Spatio-temporal Differentiation And Influencing Factors Of County Economic Resilience In Gansu Province

As the most basic unit and space carrier of economic development,county region is inevitably subjected to different degrees of external impact and internal disturbance in the process of development,which poses a serious threat to social stability,economic development and people’s life.As an important ecological,security and energy barrier,Gansu Province is also an important region in the inner cycle belt of the new round of western development.After poverty alleviation,Gansu province is still faced with a severe road of rural revitalization.The development of rural revitalization with county as the carrier can better promote the economic development of Gansu Province.In this study,the spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of county economic resilience in Gansu Province are of great significance to complement the development weaknesses of counties,improve the level of rural revitalization and promote high-quality development of counties,and also provide policy reference for similar regions.This study takes 87 counties in Gansu Province from 2011 to 2020 as the research object,constructs an evaluation index system of county economic resilience from three dimensions of risk resistance ability,reorganization ability and innovation and transformation ability,and uses entropy method to measure county economic resilience.On this basis,spatial statistical analysis method is used to analyze the county economic resilience of Gansu Province.Finally,the spatial Dubin model is used to analyze the factors affecting the economic resilience of Gansu Province.Among the findings:First,the results of measures of economic resilience.In general,the level of county economic resilience in Gansu Province increased slightly from 0.345 in 2011 to 0.363 in 2020,with an increase of 5.3%,but it is still at a low level.The economic resilience of Chengguan District and Jiayuguan City basically ranked the top five.Affected by policies and other factors,the economic resilience of Subei County fluctuated greatly but remained in the top 10.The bottom 10 counties were mostly distributed in Longnan region.From the perspective of different regions,the level of economic resilience of all regions increased,showing the characteristics of "Hexi region > Longzhong region > overall region >Longdong region > Gannan region > Longnan region".The level of economic resilience of each subsystem shows obvious volatility and hierarchy,and has obvious non-equilibrium.During the study period,the economic resilience of Gansu Province’s counties is characterized by cluster contiguity,and shows obvious zonal differences.the overall differences of economic resilience in counties showed a decreasing trend,and intra-regional differences were the main sources of economic resilience differences.Second,the spatial pattern and correlation analysis results of economic resilience.The counties with "high-high" agglomeration are mostly concentrated in Hexi,while those with "low-low" agglomeration are mostly concentrated in Longdong and Gannan.The "low-low" agglomeration trend decreases in Longdong,while the "low-low" agglomeration trend increases in Gannan.Third,the analysis results of influencing factors of economic resilience.From six dimensions of economic factors,financial factors,fiscal factors,market factors,cultural and educational factors and natural factors,the influence factors of economic resilience are analyzed.Finally,the spatial Durbin model of time fixed effect is selected.According to the effect decomposition results,the direct effects of economic factors,fiscal factors and market factors are strong,while the effects of financial factors and cultural and educational factors are not obvious.In conclusion,targeted policy suggestions are put forward in order to improve the resilience of county economy in Gansu Province and provide reference for rural revitalization and development at county level in underdeveloped western areas.