Research And Design Of Citrus Weather Index Insurance Product In Guangdong

Guangdong Province is China’s major citrus production province,but also the national citrus production advantageous development area,perennial production in the country’s top five.At present,citrus industry has become one of the important industries of agriculture in Guangdong Province,citrus planting area and production are increasing,and the production of citrus in Guangdong in 2021 is 3,997,200 tons,an increase of2.97% year-on-year.However,Guangdong Province has complicated and volatile climate,and frequent meteorological disasters,which seriously affect agricultural production.Agricultural insurance is an important tool for agricultural risk management,but traditional agricultural insurance has problems such as adverse selection and moral hazard,while weather index insurance can effectively solve.Based on the current research status of weather index insurance,this thesis collects and organizes the yield,planting area and weather data of citrus in Guangdong,and constructs a scientific and reasonable citrus weather index insurance adapted to the actual situation in Guangdong.This thesis takes three prefecture-level cities in Guangdong,Qingyuan,Yangjiang and Jiangmen,where citrus production fluctuates a lot.In this thesis,firstly,the trend yield was fitted using 5a sliding average method and HP filter method to separate the meteorological yield;secondly,based on the meteorological hazards faced during the growth of citrus in Guangdong,the meteorological risk of each growth stage of citrus was analyzed,14 meteorological indices were designed,and correlation analysis was conducted with the relative meteorological yield to determine the final claim index,and then the regression model of relative meteorological yield and meteorological index was constructed;then The pure insurance rates of citrus weather index insurance in the three sample cities were determined by using the single yield distribution model method and the empirical rate method,and the premiums and gross rates were determined.Finally,the conclusions of this thesis are summarized and suggestions are made from both government and insurance companies to improve the regulatory mechanism,build infrastructure,and strengthen the education and training of insurance practitioners.