| Xinjiang cotton area is one of the three most suitable cotton areas in China,and it has been playing a very important role in my country’s cotton industry for a long time.As one of the regions with the most abundant water resources in Xinjiang,the Aksu region is also an important production base for high-quality commercial cotton in the country.Its cotton output accounts for 1/6 of the country’s total cotton output,1/5 of Xinjiang’s total cotton output,and long-staple cotton output accounts for more than 90% of the country’s total long-staple cotton output.At the same time,Xinjiang is also one of the provinces with frequent natural disasters in the country.In recent years,droughts,floods(flood disasters),wind and hail disasters and low temperature freezing disasters(frost disasters)have occurred frequently in Xinjiang,which seriously affected the yield and quality of cotton.In the operation of traditional agricultural insurance,cotton planting insurance,which mainly underwrites materialized costs,has a limited level of protection for cotton farmers,and the uniform rate of the whole Xinjiang is generally adopted.There are many problems such as adverse selection and moral hazard.Therefore,weather index insurance has become an effective guarantee method to help stabilize and increase cotton production in Xinjiang by virtue of its simple and easy-to-understand products,low rates,low costs,and rapid claims settlement.This paper selects cotton in Aksu City as the research object,and uses the cotton yield data and related meteorological data from 1988 to 2019 to improve the design of meteorological index insurance products and the actuarial model.On the one hand,taking Aksu City,Xinjiang as the research area,combined with the county’s geographical climate environment and cotton growth characteristics,a set of standardized weather index insurance products was designed for the cotton planting situation in the city,and refined pricing and pricing at the county scale were carried out.The improvement of insurance types is expected to provide a realistic reference value for other cotton producing areas to carry out weather index insurance;on the other hand,from the perspective of expanding the sample size,this paper discusses the influence of the two-dimensional information diffusion model method on the determination of cotton insurance premium rates in terms of expanding the sample size.,using the fuzzy correlation between cotton yield reduction rate and meteorological index,to determine the rate of meteorological index insurance products,and compare it with the small sample rate estimation results through empirical rate method,parametric method and non-parametric method.Rate determination effect.In order to meet the diversified needs of farmers for insurance,and better help cotton farmers to better resist agricultural natural risks.The content of this paper is mainly divided into six chapters,the contents of each chapter are as follows:Chapter 1,Introduction.This chapter mainly introduces the background and significance of this research topic,the research status of weather index insurance at home and abroad,the latest progress in the determination of insurance product rates,innovations and deficiencies.Secondly,starting from the two main contents of this study,the research trends at home and abroad are sorted out from the research progress of meteorological index insurance and the determination of meteorological index insurance rates.It is further believed that under the premise that the current crop data in my country is incomplete and discontinuous,the crop insurance rate results obtained only by improving the detrending method or the rate estimation method have more or less certain limitations.Therefore,from the perspective of increasing the sample,this paper proposes an improved method for determining the agricultural insurance rate.The second chapter,the connotation,characteristics and practice of meteorological index insurance.This chapter sorts out the development of weather index insurance at home and abroad and its pilots,and makes an inductive description based on the products that have been filed by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission,summarizes the advantages and characteristics of weather index insurance over traditional agricultural insurance,and grasps the role of weather index insurance in agricultural insurance.The positioning of the fourth chapter provides a realistic reference experience for the design of Aksu cotton insurance products.Compared with the weather index insurance types that are piloted in China,the insurance products are designed to be more in line with the actual development needs of Xinjiang cotton.The third chapter discusses the existing problems of cotton insurance and the necessity of innovation and development of index insurance.This chapter focuses on the important position of Xinjiang cotton in my country’s cotton industry.Starting from the concept,characteristics,advantages and disadvantages and positioning of meteorological index insurance explained in the previous chapter,it explains why this paper chooses Xinjiang cotton as the research object of this paper,and develops cotton meteorological index insurance.realistic necessity.By collecting and sorting out the relevant literature on cotton insurance in my country,especially the latest development of cotton insurance in Xinjiang,this paper analyzes the role of the current Xinjiang cotton planting insurance in it and the main disasters and disasters in various cotton producing areas,and summarizes the traditional planting insurance.Limitations and the experience of the suspension of cotton meteorological index insurance,the Aksu region where cotton yield,sown area and standard deviation of unit yield are at the forefront are preliminarily selected as the research area,and the insurance coverage includes the drought that threatens agricultural production with the greatest negative impact and the drought.Low temperature and freezing disasters related to the relationship.Taking Aksu City as an example,it is proposed to design a two-factor comprehensive meteorological index insurance at the county scale.The fourth chapter,the design of cotton weather index insurance products-taking Aksu City as an example.First,the research area of this paper,the geographical and climatic environment,cotton planting distribution and yield meteorological data sources of Aksu City,the research area of this paper,is introduced;The method and results were evaluated and analyzed,and the HP filtering method that conformed to the fluctuation of cotton yield per unit in Aksu City was screened out,and the separation of cotton meteorological yield was achieved;finally,the daily meteorological data from 1989 to 2020 was used to process the monthly cumulative precipitation during the cotton growing period.The meteorological indicators such as the monthly maximum temperature,the monthly minimum temperature,the monthly average temperature and the active accumulated temperature were tested by Pearson correlation respectively with the cotton yield reduction rate,and the main meteorological disasters of the cotton yield reduction rate were preliminarily obtained—drought and low temperature.On this basis,the regression analysis of the cotton yield reduction rate and the main disaster-causing factors was carried out.According to the significance of the variables and the goodness of fit of the model,the regression models of the single-factor meteorological index and the two-factor comprehensive meteorological index were respectively constructed,and the 7-factor meteorological index was finally determined.Regression model,trigger value and exit value of precipitation anomaly in August and cotton yield reduction rate.The fifth chapter is the analysis of insurance pricing of cotton weather index in Aksu City.Evaluating the risk distribution of crops and selecting an appropriate statistical model for fitting often requires long-term series data in practice.In view of the lack of current crop yield data and meteorological data in my country,this paper starts from the perspective of sample size when carrying out the model pricing research in the second part,and evaluates the effect of sample size on the meteorological index through the method of expanding the sample size,that is,the two-dimensional information diffusion model.The influence of the precision of insurance rate determination is discussed,and the applicability of this method in the field of weather index insurance is discussed.Under the framework of different sample sizes,a comparative analysis of rates between the empirical rate method,the parametric method and the non-parametric method is carried out.Taking the comprehensive rate of 7% of cotton cost insurance implemented in Aksu area as a reference,it is believed that the large sample data obtained by the two-dimensional information diffusion model method can well describe the data characteristics of the original sample,and the fees obtained under different pricing model methods are considered.Rate estimation The rate result is informative and actionable.In addition,when the years are sufficient(≥30 years),the trend yield fitting method conforms to the local crop yield distribution characteristics,and multiple probability distribution models can be optimally applied,the rate results of small sample parameter estimation will not seriously underestimate the risk.And it’s more robust in the long run.Chapter VI,conclusions and recommendations.By designing cotton meteorological index products and improving the rate determination method,combined with the current situation of cotton planting insurance generally implemented in Xinjiang,the corresponding research conclusions and policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of meteorological station construction,data construction and meteorological index insurance development.The main research features and innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)According to the research on cotton growth cycle and planting situation at the county scale,a standardized weather index insurance product design process was formulated,and refined pricing was carried out.This research topic and research perspective are innovative to a certain extent,and the research results focus on application,in order to provide a realistic reference for other cotton producing areas to carry out meteorological index insurance.(2)Taking Aksu City as an example,it innovatively explored the main disaster-causing factors for the reduction of cotton yield per unit.Model regression results showed that drought had a significant effect on local cotton yield,rather than air temperature,which had the greatest impact on cotton yield.This result confirms from the side that the main yield reduction risks faced by crops have large risk differences among different counties.Taking Aksu City as an example,this paper preliminarily determines the main yield reduction disasters faced by cotton,and explores the impact period of the disaster-causing factors corresponding to the yield reduction disasters.Combined with the cotton growth cycle,the drought meteorological index insurance for cotton during the flowering and boll period is designed.It has opened up a new direction for the development of Xinjiang cotton weather index insurance products,which has certain practicability and pilot promotion value.(3)Through the comparative study on the determination methods of different rates of meteorological index insurance,the optimal actuarial pricing process suitable for the growth and development of cotton in Aksu City was explored.From the perspective of expanding the sample size,this paper uses the fuzzy correlation between the meteorological index and the yield reduction rate,introduces a two-dimensional information diffusion model applied in income insurance,optimizes the actuarial result of the meteorological index insurance rate,and compares it with small The rate determined under the sample(32 historical unit yield data)was compared,and the estimated efficiency and rate rationality of the method at the county scale were evaluated. |
