Study On Agro-Meteorological Index Insurance Based On Disaster Risk Analysis

Winter wheat is one of the most important crops in our country, but the frequent meteorological disasters greatly decrease the yield of the winter wheat. It has an important significance of promoting agro-meteorological index insurance for the agricultural production. In this paper, firstly, recognition of the meteorological disaster which affecting the growth and development of winter wheat, pointing out that the effect of five kinds of meteorological disasters in winter wheat yield:winter injury, spring frost injury, drought, flood and continuous rain. Then we calculated the disaster indexes by using the meteorological data in Jiangsu Province from1960to2012, and then analyzed the risks of the five meteorological disasters in Jiangsu Province. By using the linear sliding average method, the yield of the winter wheat was divided into two parts:the trend yield and the meteorological yield, and we got the relative meteorological yield and the yield reduction rate. We divided the yield reduction rates into different grades, and analyzed the risks of them, and then we built the correlation model between the yield reduction rate and the disaster indexes by using the multiple regression method. After that, we design the Agro-Meteorological Index, by using the production data and the experience rate method; we calculate the pure premium rates of the winter wheat in different cities in different deductible amounts. According to the calculation results we divide Jiangsu province into three regions. At last we studied the promotion plan of the winter wheat meteorological index insurance product. The main results we got are as below:(1) The risk of the freezing disaster in winter in the north of Jiangsu Province is high, the frequencies of occurrence of the freezing disaster in different grades are all high; the risk of the freezing disaster in winter in the south of Jiangsu Province is low, the frequencies of occurrence are low. The risk of the freezing disaster in winter has a zonal rule in the spatial distribution, the risks increase from the south to north.(2) The risks in different grades of the freezing disaster in spring in the north of Jiangsu Province are all high, especially in the northeast; the risk of the freezing disaster in spring in the south of Jiangsu Province is low, and the frequencies of occurrence are low. The risk of the freezing disaster in spring has a zonal rule in the spatial distribution, the risks increase from the south to north.(3) The risk of the drought in the central and northern areas of Jiangsu Province is high; the frequencies of occurrence of the freezing disaster in different grades are all high; the risk of the drought in the south of Jiangsu Province is low.(4) The flood is one of the serious meteorological disasters in Jiangsu. The risk of flood in the central and northern areas of Jiangsu Province is high, and the risk of the flood in the south of Jiangsu Province is low.(5) The risks in different grades of the continuous rainy disaster in the north of Jiangsu Province are all low; the risk of the continuous rainy disaster in the south area is high. The risk of the continuous rainy disaster has a zonal rule in the spatial distribution, the risks increase from the north to south.(6) The risk of reduction of output in the northeast and southwest areas is relatively high. The risk of reduction of output in the southeast area is relatively low.(7) We divide Jiangsu province into three regions, the different areas use the different deductible amounts, and we determine the pure premium rates and pure premium for each city.In this study, we made a detailed analysis of the risks of the five kinds of meteorological dis asters in Jiangsu Province, and then we described the decrease situations of the winter wheat prod uction in the all areas.Our study designed specific insurance products for different areas; it has a good guiding significance for the agricultural insurance in Jiangsu province research.