| The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier and economic zone in China,and its high-quality development is of great significance to the overall development of China.However,in recent years,problems such as fragile ecological environment and difficult economic transformation still exist in the Yellow River Basin.The differences between the upper,middle and lower reaches are obvious,and the inadequate and unbalanced contradiction of regional development is prominent,which seriously restricts the improvement of the development level of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,this paper discusses the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of the high quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin and predicts its development trend.In this paper,the basic data of 313 counties in the Yellow River Basin in 2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2020 were adopted,and the relevant research was carried out by the methods of multi-index evaluation,spatial Kernel density analysis,Theil index analysis,cluster analysis,agglomeration analysis,correlation analysis and grey prediction model.Firstly,the comprehensive evaluation index system of high quality development of county economy in the Yellow River Basin is constructed,and the comprehensive evaluation value of high quality development level of county economy is obtained by using entropy method.Then,the time evolution trend of the high quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed.According to different dimensions-based Kernel density analysis,Theil index analysis and other methods,the analysis was first based on the whole basin,then based on the upper,middle and lower reaches,then based on the province analysis,and finally based on the county analysis.Secondly,the paper analyzes the evolution trend of the spatial pattern of the high-quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin.Firstly,cluster analysis is used to analyze the high-quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin from the quantity and spatial pattern of each category of county economy.Then,ESDA method is used to analyze the spatial agglomeration and correlation analysis of the high-quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin.Finally,the grey prediction model is used to forecast the trend of high quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin.The results show that:(1)The overall high quality economic development level of counties in the Yellow River Basin maintained a stable growth trend.In 2000,2005,2010 and 2015,the high-quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin has maintained a stable growth trend,and the level of high-quality development of county economy has been continuously improved.In 2020,compared with 2015,it decreased by 2%.The average annual growth rate was 2.8 percent every five years,with the fastest year being 2010,when the growth rate was 5.3 percent.Although the high quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin has a certain periodic fluctuation,the overall trend is stable and positive,which can be roughly divided into two stages: a steady increase stage from 2000 to 2015,and a fluctuation stage from 2015 to 2020.(2)The lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin are better than the middle reaches,and the middle reaches are better than the upper reaches.In terms of growth rate,the lower reaches of the Yellow River grew faster than the middle reaches,and the middle reaches grew slightly faster than the upper reaches.The level of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin shows that the lower reaches are more developed,and the middle and upper reaches are slightly lagging behind,and the difference between the whole Yellow River Basin and the upper,middle and lower reaches of the county economic quality development level is narrowing.(3)The level of high-quality economic development of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin basically presents a trend of steady rise.From the perspective of time evolution,the high quality development level of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin basically showed a steady rising trend during 2000-2020.The period from 2000 to 2015 was a steady rising stage,and the period from 2015 to 2020 was a fluctuating stage.During this period,the high-quality development level of the nine provinces all showed certain fluctuations.In addition,the Their index of high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Basin showed a trend of slow decline from 2000 to 2020,and the inter-provincial gap was slowly narrowing.The imbalance in regional development has improved.(4)There are great differences in the spatial pattern of high-quality economic development in counties of the Yellow River Basin.The high quality development level of the eastern counties was significantly higher than that of the western counties,showing a decreasing trend of the high quality development level along the Yellow River from east to west.It is low in the northwest and high along the central south and northeast coasts.It has formed a high-quality development pattern of two leading(Shandong and Henan),four good(Shaanxi,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and Ningxia),and three lagging(Gansu,Qinghai and Sichuan).The high quality development level of county economy in the Yellow River Basin shows the "stepped" decline characteristics of "east,middle and west" three regions in space.(5)The number of counties in the Yellow River Basin cluster area is relatively stable,and the spatial structure of the Yellow River Basin is stable.It is difficult to change the existing urban cluster situation in a short time.About 35% of the counties located in H-H cluster and L-L cluster have positive spatial correlation,while only about 1% of the counties located in H-L cluster.The spatial correlation of most of the counties has not changed significantly.The H-H cluster area is mainly in Henan and Shandong,the L-L cluster area is mainly in Qinghai province,and the H-L cluster area is mainly in Gansu and Shaanxi.(6)The distribution pattern of "cold-hot spot" among counties in the Yellow River Basin has not changed greatly,and it still maintains the characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west",and the polarization of "east" and "west" is obvious.Hot spots are concentrated in the eastern region,secondary hot spots are concentrated in the northern region,cold spots and secondary cold spots are mainly concentrated in the western region of the Yellow River Basin and the central region of the Yellow River Basin.(7)The high quality development trend of county economy in the Yellow River Basin showed a trend of rising first and then balanced development.In the Yellow River Basin,Henan and Shandong are still the regions with higher level of high-quality economic development.From 2025 to 2035,the level of high-quality economic development of counties in the Yellow River Basin will be high in the northern part of the east and low in the central part of the west.From 2035 to 2040,the spatial differentiation of high-quality economic development levels among counties in the Yellow River Basin will become smaller and smaller.Generally speaking,in the next two decades,the county economy in the Yellow River Basin will be higher in the east and lower in the west,and then the east will drive the central and western regions,achieving a balanced development of the eastern and central counties. |
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