China’s Study Of The Trade Potential Of RCEP Members

As the world’s largest and most promising free trade area,RCEP will reduce the cost of trade in goods between member countries,increase confidence in regional economic recovery and provide a new impetus to regional and global trade growth after its entry into force.The article is based on the bilateral trade data of the 14 RCEP member countries from 2007 to 2021.Firstly,the overall situation of RCEP is introduced in terms of the signing history,total population and economic size of RCEP,and the current trade situation of RCEP member countries is introduced in terms of trade size and country structure,and the factors influencing trade potential are introduced to lay the foundation for the later empirical study.Finally,the article uses a stochastic frontier gravity model to regress and analyse the trade potential and influencing factors of bilateral trade between China and RCEP member countries between 2007 and 2021,and analyses the market space and development potential between China and RCEP member countries.The results show that: firstly,the empirical results show that the GDP per capita of both sides and the population size of RCEP member countries,as well as the geographical distance and common language of both sides significantly affect the trade import and export of both sides,and the trade freedom,monetary freedom,investment freedom,financial freedom,government expenditure,logistics performance index and whether or not to sign FTA are significantly and negatively related to the trade inefficiency term,and each factor has a significant impact on Secondly,the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and the RCEP member countries differ significantly by country,with trade efficiency with developed countries at a relatively high level and greater trade potential to be explored.In response to the findings of this study,the article proposes the following policy recommendations for reference:optimise the structure of trade commodities and develop new trade growth points;strengthen infrastructure development in each country to reduce transaction costs;deepen political mutual trust between China,Japan and South Korea to achieve winwin cooperation;promote cultural exchanges with trading countries to deepen economic and trade cooperation;and enhance the level of economic liberalisation to prevent trade risks.