A Study On Influencing Factors And Trade Potential Of China’s Soybean Import Trade

Since the 21 st century,with the rapid development of China’s economy,the demand for meat,eggs and milk products has continued to increase.As an important source of animal feed,the demand for soybeans has also increased.Due to the slow increase in domestic soybean production and the continuous expansion of the market supply and demand gap,China has gradually formed a high dependence on imported soybeans.In 1996,China became a net importer of soybeans for the first time.In 2020,China’s soybean imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time.China’s soybean imports continue to grow,but the source of imports tends to be single.China’s soybean imports are highly dependent on Brazil,the United States and Argentina,and the current international trade environment is complex,and the call for deglobalization is rising.As one of the main soybean producing countries,the United States provoked a trade dispute with China in 2017,resulting in the safety of the soybean industry.The problem immediately attracted the attention of all sectors of society.In 2019,the No.1central document proposed the implementation of the "Soybean Revitalization Plan",in an effort to enhance the competitiveness of China’s soybean industry,while actively exploring the diversification of soybean import sources to prevent being controlled by others in the turbulent international trade environment.Therefore,to accurately grasp the development trend of China’s soybean import trade and analyze the driving factors behind it is of great significance for China to expand the source of soybean imports in the future,improve trade efficiency,tap trade potential,and ensure the security of China’s soybean supply.After reviewing the existing research at home and abroad,this paper makes a statistical analysis on the current situation of China’s soybean industry from the dimensions of production,consumption and import trade,and selects 9 countries with the closest soybean trade cooperation with China as a sample.According to the length of trade and volume,they are divided into traditional soybean trading countries and emerging soybean trading countries.Based on the data of China’s soybean import trade from 1996 to 2020,this paper makes an empirical analysis and calculation on the influencing factors,trade efficiency and potential of China’s soybean import trade by using the stochastic frontier gravity model.The empirical results show that there is still a large gap between China’s soybean import trade level and the optimal level,and the trade efficiency shows a downward trend with time.The economic scale of China and its importing countries,the size of China’s population aged 15 to 64,China’s per capita national income and the amount of imported meat will significantly promote China’s soybean imports;The population size and per capita national income level of the importing country,China’s urbanization rate and when the importing country is a landlocked country will hinder the expansion of China’s soybean import trade;Domestic soybean production has no significant impact on China’s soybean import trade.In terms of trade inefficiency,exchange rate,investment freedom level,liner transport connectivity index and when both sides of trade are members of the world trade organization,it can significantly weaken the blocking effect of other trade inefficiency;The high degree of financial freedom and financial freedom will hinder the development of China’s soybean trade;" The belt and road" Cooperation Initiative has no significant impact on China’s soybean trade.In addition,by measuring the trade efficiency and trade potential,it is concluded that the overall trade efficiency between China and the nine major soybean trading countries is low,and the average import trade efficiency in 2020 is close to 40%.Among them,the trade efficiency with emerging soybean trading countries is slightly higher than that of traditional soybean trading countries,and there is still great potential to improve in the future.Among them,the import trade efficiency between China and Brazil,Uruguay and Ethiopia is about 90%;The efficiency of soybean trade with Argentina,USA,Canada and Russia is low,all less than 20%,but there is great potential for future trade.The current soybean trade efficiency and potential of Kazakhstan and Ukraine are relatively low.Finally,through the description and analysis of the current situation of China’s soybean supply and demand and trade pattern,as well as the empirical analysis of the efficiency and potential calculation of China’s soybean import trade,this paper clarifies the main influencing factors and degrees of China’s soybean import trade,and measures the trade efficiency and potential of soybean import source countries.The countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the three dimensions of improving the trade efficiency of traditional trading countries,developing the market of emerging soybean trading countries and improving the production level of domestic soybeans,so as to provide reference for the development of China’s soybean import trade.