Analysis Of China-kazakhstan’s Close Tread And Compute Trade Potential

Under the background of "Silk Road Economic Zone", China and Central Asian trade have become the hot topic. This paper selects a country in the five Central Asian countries-Kazakhstan to carry out research, mainly studies the close degree and the trade potential of China Kazakhstan trade.This paper first introduces the background and significance of the research, literature analysis, determine the research objectives, research methods and framework. Then introduce the development process and current situation of China and Kazakhstan trade.Sino-Kazakhstan trade relations calculations, as well as the efficiency and potential of bilateral trade after the conduct. The two part of this paper is the focus of this paper: first,based on the theory of subjective and objective method of the degree of trade integration index construction. As trade complementarity index, trading close index, trade intensity index were to some extent reflect their trade relations with partner countries, and therefore in order to fully grasp the trade relations between the two countries, the paper with the subjective and objective weight of three indicators to build the trade weighted index closeness. the two is based on the stochastic frontier gravity model of trade potential. Because of the potential for research in trade, traditional trade gravity model there are some defects, we can not objectively indicate that the true meaning of "potential" expressed, so the use of stochastic frontier model to make up for this shortcoming gravity, and the close of trading Construction composite index as a variable into the model, and thus more accurately analyze the efficiency of Kazakhstan’s trade and trade potential. On the basis of detailed analysis theory, the empirical research is carried out from two aspects: the inlet and the outlet. The comprehensive index, the construction model, the calculation of the trade efficiency, and the potential of the research are calculated.The research results show that the efficiency of China and Kazakhstan are closely related to export trade, But every year, a certain volatility, the average import and export trade is closely integrated index was 1.517,1.591, exports slightly larger than imports. The efficiency of export trade is 0.228, 0.290 respectively, More efficient than import export efficiency, and the trade efficiency is relatively low, and the trade potential is relatively large, the average trade expansion space is 599.35% and 430.98% respectively. In order to improve the trade efficiency, the foreign trade of our country and Kazakhstan still have a lot of room for improvement.