Research On Trade Potential And Influencing Factors Between China And Five CentralAsian Countries

Central Asia is generally considered to be a region of five countries including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan and Tajikistan,also known as the five Central Asian countries.The five Central Asian countries are adjacent to western China.In recent years,their economic and trade ties with China have become increasingly close.Especially after being affected by the global financial turmoil in 2008,China has sought to trade with neighboring countries because of trade barriers between China and the West.In 2013,China proposed the^One Belt,One Road" initiative,once again bringing the strategic position of Central Asia to a high level.The bilateral trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries is also growing.The degree of trade integration and complementarity between the two sides is constantly strengthening.However,there are still many obstacles and problems in the process of trade development between the two sides,identifying factors affecting trade,reducing trade barriers and improving Trade efficiency will be the focus of this paper.Based on the analysis of relevant literatures at home and abroad and the relevant theoretical knowledge,this paper collects the data of trade cooperation between China and Central Asia from 2000 to 2017 and the industry-level data from 2007 to 2017.Firstly,using the trade combination index,trade competitive advantage index and trade complementarity index for descriptive statistical analysis,the bilateral trade status is preliminarily obtained,and then the stochastic frontal gravitation model is used to calculate the panel data from the total level and the industry level.The empirical analysis shows the factors affecting the realization of the trade potential between China and the five Central Asian countries.Finally,the trade potential of China and the five Central Asian countries at the aggregate level and the industry level is measured.The main conclusions are as follows:1.GDP and national neighbors have a positive effect on bilateral trade;2.Population and distance have a restraining effect on bilateral trade volume;3.Join Shanghai Cooperation Organization,government integrity level,tax burden level,commercial freedom,trade freedom has a restraining effect on bilateral trade inefficiency;4.Government spending and investment freedom have a positive effect on bilateral trade inefficiency;5.On the aggregate level,Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan have low trade efficiency and large potential for trade;6.At the industry level,Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have low trade efficiency and large potential for trade in labor-intensive industries,capital-and technology-intensive industries;Turkmenistan has low trade efficiency and large potential for trade in natural resource-intensive industries.Finally,the corresponding policy recommendations are proposed based on the conclusions of this paper.