Study On The Evolution Of Spatio-temporal Pattern Of Shrinking Cities In The Yellow River Basin And Its Influencing Factors

In the context of rapid globalization,various resource elements are flowing and allocated globally.As a gathering place for capital elements,urban expansion and contraction are important manifestations of the urban life cycle.Affected by industrial restructuring and population aging,developed countries such as Europe and America have experienced a series of contraction problems such as population loss,economic recession,and idle urban land.With the rapid progress of urbanization in China,cities in some regions have begun to show a trend of partial contraction,which has posed a certain challenge to the new urbanization and Chinese path to modernization construction,and has become the mainstream and cutting-edge issues concerned by many domestic scholars.As one of the important economic zones in China,the Yellow River Basin has a large number and wide distribution of resource-based cities,a weak economic foundation,and a particularly prominent contradiction of imbalanced and insufficient development.The phenomenon of urban contraction in the region is becoming increasingly prominent.Therefore,conducting in-depth research on the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and its influencing factors of the Yellow River Basin can help to solve a series of urban and regional development problems currently facing the region,and has great practical significance for implementing the national major regional development strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.Based on the above research background,this article first sorts out the cutting-edge theories related to urban contraction at home and abroad,and draws on the relevant research results of other regions in China.88 administrative units in the Yellow River Basin are selected as the research objects,and shrinking cities are identified using the permanent population data of the sixth and seventh population censuses.On this basis,shrinking cities are identified and classified into global,marginal,and Analyze the characteristics of population age structure,population social structure,and spatial pattern evolution of shrinking cities for the three types of contraction that intersect.Secondly,it studies the cause mechanism of shrinking cities in the Yellow River basin from the population,economy,society,policy and other factors,and finally selects 11 indicators that affect urban shrinkage,and conducts regression analysis based on panel data model.The research results indicate that for globally shrinking cities,population age structure,urban population density,per capita GDP,public services and infrastructure,and per capita disposable income of urban residents have a significant impact on them;For marginalized shrinking cities,the main influencing factors are public services and infrastructure,as well as per capita disposable income of urban residents;For cross contracting cities,the per capita GDP and urbanization rate of permanent residents have a significant impact on their development.Overall,per capita GDP,public services and infrastructure,and whether cities have opened high-speed rail have a significant impact on shrinking cities.Finally,in response to the above research conclusions,this article proposes to transform the concept of growth and correctly understand contraction;Adjusting and optimizing industrial structure,constructing a modern industrial system;Comprehensively improving the quality of the population and accelerating the transformation towards the concept of human capital;Accelerate the construction of new infrastructure and improve the capacity of urban public services.