Analysis Of The Causes Of China's Shrinking City Identification And Time-space Heterogeneity

In the 1980 s,Western scholars proposed the concept of shrinking cities to describe the process of urban transformation and its impact worldwide.For China,since 2010,the rapid economic growth brought about by reform and opening up has been unsustainable in some areas.Some resource-based cities,industrial cities and metropolitan peripheral cities have experienced sustained population loss and economic slowdown.Even the local shrinking phenomenon such as decline has brought many adverse effects to the economy,society,material and space.This phenomenon and its influencing effects have attracted close attention in the research fields of urban planning and regional economy.After 2015,guided by the theory of foreign shrinking cities,scholars have shrinking foreign or Chinese cities with the continuous decline of population as the main feature.A qualitative or quantitative research method has been used to study the definition and characteristics,characteristics,effects,types,causes and countermeasures of urban shrinking.However,the existing research(1)for the identification of shrinking cities,mostly to reduce the population to the main basis for shrinking cities,the comprehensive identification of the economic and social shrinking symbiosis of this phenomenon is not deep enough;(2)the cause of shrinking cities Analysis,mostly using the classic panel model,ignoring the spatial and temporal correlation and heterogeneity between Chinese cities,the research results may have certain biases.Therefore,in order to deeply explore the current situation of China's shrinking cities and the causes of spatial and temporal heterogeneity,this paper constructs a shrinking city identification index system covering multi-dimensional factors of population,economy and society,using spatial statistical analysis methods and spatial measurement models to the whole country.283 prefecture-level cities are the research objects,which identify and classify China's shrinking cities from the middle level,and empirically analyze the characteristics and causes of shrinking cities from the perspective of spatial and temporal correlation and heterogeneity;and select resource-based cities and western small and medium-sized enterprises.The typical representative of the city conducts a case study to explore the path and countermeasures for achieving new urbanization transformation,urban renewal or shrewd shrinking under the urban shrinking scenario.The study found that(1)for shrinking city identification,the comprehensive index constructed by population,economy and social indicators is more objective and comprehensive than the single population identification standard;(2)at the prefecture-level city level,China shrinks the city in the northeast,The central and western regions are more obvious.There are also local shrinking in the economically developed regions of North China,the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta,but there are some differences in the degree of shrinking;the type of shrinking is concentrated in industrial and resource-led shrinking,small and medium-sized urban shrinking and policy orientation.(3)The causes of China's shrinking cities have significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The urbanization rate,the number of employed people and GDP have always been positive effects,indicating that we must continue to develop the economy,and the secondary industry is going from positive to negative.Probably because most industrial cities are experiencing de-industrialization,the “inverted U” effect of the tertiary industry may be due to the excessive growth of local housing prices and the inability to adapt during structural transformation,such as fixed investment.Factors such as informatization will also affect the occurrence of urban shrinking;(4)The reasons for urban shrinking are different.Government need to combine the characteristics of their own city,according to local conditions for development.