| Natural disasters,climate extremes,economic crises,local armed conflicts,public health events and other types of "black swans" and "gray rhinoceroses" are gradually appearing with higher frequency and intensity,especially the new crown pneumonia epidemic has produced a full range of disruptions to the global economy.The regional economic slowdown and lack of development momentum have led to problems such as how to cope with the uncertainty of the shock to achieve sustainable and stable development has become a hot topic of concern in the academic and political circles.Currently,China’s regional development is facing new challenges and opportunities.In the uncertain environment at home and abroad,China’s economic development is shifting from focusing on development speed to focusing on development quality,and high-quality development has become the primary task of building a modern socialist country.With the ecological environmental protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin rising as a national strategy,the high-quality and stable development of the Yellow River Basin has become an important support to promote the sustainable development of China’s economy.In this context,how the regional economic system can cope with sudden and uncertain disturbances and crises,and how to achieve green,sustainable and high-quality development after conflicts has become an urgent issue for the current regional economic development.As an emerging development concept,economic resilience emphasizes on improving the system’s ability to resist,adapt,recover,and renew in response to sudden disturbances and shocks.Exploring regional economic resilience helps regional economic systems better resist and defend against uncertain crises,mitigate the negative impacts of shocks,maintain development paths,as well as recover and shift to better development paths through adaptive structural adjustment after shocks,which is an important guidance for achieving high-quality development of urban agglomerations.Green development is an important connotation of Chinese modernization."The "two mountains" theory is a good medicine to solve environmental problems and is the basis for highquality economic development.In the current context of domestic and international uncertainty,green development provides a new connotation for regional economic resilience and is the cornerstone of resilient economic development.This paper studies the economic resilience of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of green development,based on the concept of green development,incorporates resource and environmental constraints into the research framework of economic resilience,and studies the economic system of urban agglomerations with complex adaptive properties in the process of their dynamic evolution by chronic disturbances of resources and environment,which can maintain the stability of their original structure and function,adapt quickly and can update the original structure in time,thus ensuring the ability of urban agglomerations to sustain healthy economic development.This paper theoretically divides economic resilience into two major systems: resistance to resilience and reconstruction and renewal,and further divides six subsystems to support them.The Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration,where resource-based cities are concentrated,is selected as the study case area,and the period 2006-2020 is chosen as the study time period.Empirical analysis is conducted around time evolution,spatial divergence,network characteristics and influencing factors,and corresponding countermeasure suggestions are put forward.The main results of this paper are as follows:(1)From 2006 to 2020,the economic resilience of the urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin is generally developing well,but the gap between the economic resilience of the regions is also gradually expanding.During the study period,the economic resilience anomalies of the Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations are all found in the high value areas,and the demonstration effect of the high resilience areas is gradually highlighted.The resilience of cities in the study area is mainly concentrated in the middle and low value clusters,and there is obvious room for improvement.Intra-regional variation is the main source of economic resilience variation in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations.During the study period,the evolution of the main peak difference in nuclear density of each city cluster in the Yellow River Basin shows four types of characteristics.Among them,the West-Lanzhou urban agglomeration and the Guanzhong urban agglomeration show an inverted "V" type evolution;the Hubao-Egyu urban agglomeration,the Jinzhong urban agglomeration and the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration show a fluctuating decline;the Central Plains urban agglomeration shows a "U" type evolution;the main peak of the Ningxia Yellow River urban agglomeration shows a Although the peak of the main peak of Ningxia Yanhuang Urban Agglomeration appears to rise and fall in multiple frequencies,the increase or decrease is not significant.The polarization characteristics of each urban agglomeration are distinctly different.(2)Regenerative resource-based cities have the highest level of economic resilience and are higher than non-resource-based cities,while all other types of resource-based cities are lower than non-resource-based cities.This indicates that regenerative cities find a suitable development path and achieve successful transformation,and their economic resilience development level is higher than that of non-resource cities.The difference between the economic resilience levels of growthtype,mature-type and recession-type cities is smaller,and the economic resilience is basically the same,and there is no significant difference between the economic resilience of these three types of cities during the study period.(3)Spatially,the economic resilience of the urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin basically shows a pattern of twin cores echoing each other in the upper and lower urban agglomerations and a single core running along the distribution line.Regional central cities,provincial capitals and sub-provincial cities play an obvious leading role,and although they have not escaped from the central-peripheral structure,which is a single development model that still needs to be mature,the radiation range has been significantly enhanced,and the coordination of metropolitan areas within the urban agglomerations has been strengthened.The east-west direction of the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration is the main direction of regional economic resilience spatial divergence,while the south-north direction needs to be extended.The spatial distribution of economic resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration is dominated by low-low cold spot agglomerations of negative correlation type,with significant spatial homogeneity;high-high agglomerations are stably distributed in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.The number of negatively correlated city types is very small and the distribution is fragmented.(4)Under the impact of the new crown pneumonia,from the perspective of cities,the economic resilience of cities that are more loosely connected to the surrounding areas are less affected.From the perspective of city clusters,the economic resilience of seven major city clusters in the Yellow River Basin decreases from high to low: Hubao-Egyu city cluster,Jinzhong city cluster,Guanzhong city cluster,Zhongyuan city cluster,Lanxi city cluster,Ningxia along the Yellow River city cluster,Shandong Peninsula city cluster,and the resource-based city cluster decreases more.There are regional differences in the performance of each urban cluster in response to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic,with the intensity of the economic resilience impact roughly showing a high level in the west and a low level in the east spatially.The green category and science and technology category indicators show stronger resilience in the epidemic.(5)Network-wise,the network development of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin is still immature,with strong intra-regional linkages and inter-regional linkages in need of strengthening.During the study period,the strength and density of linkages of economic networks and economic resilience networks in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations show continuous growth,and the core area is stable in the central urban agglomerations.The economic network development is more mature in terms of clusters,and the four major segments are divided with clear spatial characteristics,and the third and fourth segments have two-way transmission.While the economic resilience network development is still immature and has not formed a clear spatial division of labor characteristics.There is a high correlation between the economic network and economic resilience network of urban clusters in the Yellow River basin.(6)In terms of influencing factors,environmental governance,market dynamics,industrial agglomeration,urbanization level,public services,and infrastructure are important influencing factors for the economic resilience of urban agglomerations in the Yellow River basin.In order of influence level,they are urbanization level > market dynamics > public services > infrastructure >industrial agglomeration > environmental governance.The six influencing factors have significant effects on the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin urban agglomerations themselves,but the spatial spillover effects are limited,only in terms of market dynamics,public services,population agglomeration and economic agglomeration.The level of urbanization,public services,and spatial distance are important influencing factors of the economic resilience network in the Yellow River Basin.Except for market dynamics,other factors show that the greater the proximity difference is more favorable to the association and spillover of regional economic resilience.(7)In the future development,system theory should be applied to promote the coordinated development of urban clusters in the Yellow River Basin;implement the green concept to strengthen the resilience of green development;highlight the industrial structure of key areas;strengthen the driving effect to accelerate the formation of a linkage development pattern;narrow regional differences to enhance the balanced level of urban economic resilience. |
