Research On Influencing Factors And Potential Of Trade Between China And RCEP Countries

Globalization has promoted the deepening of international trade and economic cooperation and accelerated the development of regional economic integration.The signing and entry into force of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement(RCEP)will be conducive to resource sharing,market connectivity and economic recovery.This paper takes RCEP countries’ trade as the research object,takes the trade influencing factors as the starting point,calculates the trade efficiency between China and other RCEP countries,thus calculates the trade potential between China and other RCEP countries,and finally formulates sustainable foreign trade development strategies for different potential types.This paper first analyzes the current situation of trade between China and other RCEP countries,then,based on the literature review of trade influencing factors,combined with the "five links" policy,preliminarily selects 11 explanatory variables,and uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to test the correlation of multicollinearity,robustness and qualitative variables of the model.According to the regression results,four explanatory variables of the stochastic frontier main model are determined,which are China’s per capita GDP Per capita GDP of other RCEP countries,geographical distance between trading parties and whether there is a common language;According to the regression results,six explanatory variables of the sub model of the inefficiency model are determined: whether to sign a free trade agreement,tariff level,urban population,foreign direct investment,infrastructure index and total reserve.According to the analysis results of trade influencing factors,this paper studies and calculates the trade efficiency between China and other RCEP countries,and then calculates the trade potential and trade expansion space.According to the trade efficiency data between China and other RCEP countries calculated in 2019 and the classification standard of trade potential,it is concluded that among other RCEP countries,Vietnam,Indonesia,Australia,Malaysia,South Korea,Japan,the Philippines and Thailand are potential developing countries;Cambodia,Laos,Brunei,Myanmar,Singapore and New Zealand are six countries with great potential.Finally,according to different types of trade potential,the corresponding strategies are put forward from the perspective of government and enterprises.According to the characteristics of potential development,it is proposed to implement RCEP from the perspective of the government;Strengthen digital trade cooperation,improve relevant legal systems,and improve relevant intellectual property rules;Reduce financial risks and promote the internationalization of RMB.From the perspective of enterprises,it is proposed to increase Digital Trade and help digital transformation;Deepen scientific and technological cooperation and retain international innovative talents;Formulate enterprise internationalization strategy.According to the characteristics of huge potential,it is proposed to strengthen infrastructure construction and create a good market environment from the perspective of the government;Adjust the trade structure and guide the investment direction of enterprises;From the perspective of enterprises,it is proposed to join the enterprise chamber of Commerce of the host country to enhance the corporate image;Strengthen marketing management and develop international market;Formulate targeted enterprise internationalization strategies to further promote the development of trade between China and RCEP countries.