The Trade Between Guangdong Province Of China And The RCEP Countries:Efficiency And Potential Analyses

On January 1,2022,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was implemented in fifteen countries one after the other,giving a new impetus to economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region and creating favorable conditions for the conclusion of the China-Japan-ROK FTA agreement.Guangdong Province,as the largest foreign trade province in China,has witnessed steady growth in foreign trade volume.However,the proportion of imports and exports to RCEP countries in the whole country has decreased year by year.Therefore,it is of great significance to seize the opportunity for RCEP to take effect,further tap Guangdong’s trade advantages,and enhance the efficiency and potential of import and export trade.From 2003 to 2021,the panel data of the trade and export of mechanical and electrical products between Guangdong Province and RCEP countries was analyzed.From the perspectives of trade scale,structure,nation and complementarity,this paper outlines the current state of import and export trade,as well as mechanical and electrical product export in China and Guangdong Province.Constructing the stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model for empirical analysis,the efficiency and potential of Guangdong’s import and export trade with RCEP countries,as well as export trade of mechanical and electrical products,is studied to propose pertinent policy proposals for the thorough growth of commerce between Guangdong and RCEP countries.The trade between Guangdong Province and RCEP countries is in a deficit state,with ASEAN taking up more than half of the total,and Japan and South Korea making up around 40%.For a considerable period,the exchange of mechanical and electrical goods between Japan and South Korea has been in a deficit,and its market presence in ASEAN is quite concentrated.The total exports to Vietnam,Malaysia,Thailand,Indonesia and other countries account for more than 60% of the total exports to ASEAN,and the market is relatively concentrated,so it can still be strategically explored.The empirical analysis has revealed that the enhancement of economic development in bilateral trade,along with a shared border and language,has a considerable beneficial effect on the augmentation of trade in Guangdong Province.The improvement of economic freedom,air capacity,the number of Internet users,political stability,government effectiveness and other factors can promote trade efficiency.The average trade efficiency of Guangdong Province and RCEP countries in the past 12 years has been 59.12% and 64.25%,respectively,with a considerable national disparity when it comes to calculating their overall import and export efficiency and trade potential.Thailand,South Korea,Malaysia,Japan and other countries are important partners in Guangdong’s import and export trade at this stage,while Brunei,Myanmar and Laos have low average trade efficiency,so it is necessary to formulate personalized policies to explore the market.Finally,from the perspective of Guangdong province and China,policy suggestions are put forward based on the cooperation of trading partners,infrastructure construction,business environment,industrial innovation,monetary and financial risks and other dimensions.