Research On Low-carbon Development Issues And Policy Simulation Of My Country's Manufacturing Industry Under The Background Of Carbon Pea

In recent years,China’s rapid economic development has achieved world-renowned achievements,but behind this achievement is the massive consumption of energy and high carbon dioxide emissions,which has brought certain damage to the environment.At present,the main contradiction of China’s society has changed to the contradiction between people’s desire for a better life and unbalanced and insufficient development,and people pay more attention to the quality of the environment,and the concept of "low carbon" has been deeply rooted in people’s hearts.2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping solemnly promised that China will strive to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060.This will trigger widespread changes in society as a whole.The manufacturing industry is a key area of carbon emission reduction,accounting for half of the country’s total carbon emissions,and the low-carbon transformation of the manufacturing industry is of great significance to China’s overall achievement of the carbon peak target.In this paper,with the goal of promoting the low-carbon development of China’s manufacturing industry in the context of carbon peak,the current situation of low-carbon development in manufacturing industry is comprehensively analyzed and a system dynamics model of low-carbon development in manufacturing industry is constructed.The paper first analyzes the current situation of China’s manufacturing economy,energy consumption and carbon emission,and summarizes the main problems facing the low-carbon development of China’s manufacturing industry;then,it constructs a system dynamics model of low-carbon development of manufacturing industry involving six subsystems: population,economy,energy,environment,science and technology and policy,and carries out intuitive test,stability test and historical test to verify the validity of the model;on this basis On this basis,different policy scenarios,including industrial policy,science and technology policy,financial policy and carbon trading mechanism policy,are set up to simulate each policy combination,so as to explore the impact of each policy combination on the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry.The study shows that.1.If the current policy is maintained,the total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of China’s manufacturing industry will remain high by 2030.From the energy perspective,except for coal,oil,natural gas and non-fossil energy sources all maintain an upward trend,and coal as a high carbon emission energy source has a downward trend in the future,but the overall speed is slow.From the perspective of carbon emissions,China’s manufacturing carbon emissions will reach 5.7 billion tons by 2030,with no sign of reaching the peak.2.The single policy simulation experiment shows that industrial policy,carbon trading mechanism policy and taxation policy have more obvious effects on carbon emissions,and green financial policy and science and technology policy have weaker effects.Among them,(1)although the industrial policy can reduce carbon emissions in manufacturing industry,the negative impact on the economy is also more obvious.(2)Among the carbon trading mechanism policies,carbon trading price has the most significant impact on the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry,while the impact of quota ratio is smaller,and the appropriate increase of carbon trading price is more conducive to the low-carbon development of manufacturing industry.(3)Tax policy not only reduces carbon emissions in manufacturing industry,but also pushes enterprises to upgrade technology and improve energy utilization efficiency,thus reducing carbon emission intensity.(4)Science and technology policies do not have a significant short-term impact because of their strong time lag and long input cycle.(5)Financial policies have less impact on the huge carbon emission subjects due to the small number of enterprises meeting the requirements and the narrow coverage.3.A proper combination policy of carbon emission reduction can effectively promote the low-carbon development of China’s manufacturing industry.Under the combination policy designed in the paper,both total energy consumption and total carbon emission of China’s manufacturing industry reach the peak around 2030,which is 2.85 billion tons of standard coal and 5.4 billion tons of carbon emission respectively,but the value added of manufacturing industry also reaches the peak of 27.17 trillion yuan.Finally,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for China’s manufacturing industry from five aspects: industry,science and technology,green finance,taxation and carbon trading mechanism,including optimizing the industrial structure of manufacturing industry,improving the scientific and technological innovation capacity of manufacturing industry,improving the green finance policy of manufacturing industry,improving the taxation mechanism related to manufacturing industry and accelerating the sound national carbon trading mechanism of manufacturing industry.These policies are in line with the direction of China’s economic development,have good feasibility,and are conducive to promoting the low-carbon development of China’s manufacturing industry.