Study On Influencing Factors Of Provincial Distributed Energy Development In China

In September 2020,China solemnly made a commitment to achieve the double carbon goal at the United Nations General Assembly,showing to the world that China is a great nation in response to climate change.The double carbon goal is a major strategic deployment made by China after careful consideration,a catalyst for the revitalization of the countryside,and an important help in accelerating the construction of ecological civilization,which will definitely cause profound changes in China’s energy industry and economic development.With the deepening of this change,distributed energy will usher in a good opportunity for development.Distributed energy is a small-scale energy utilization system dispersed at the customer’s end,using clean,renewable energy as the main fuel,with high energy utilization,and synergistic energy supply with large power grids is considered the future direction of the energy market.Various countries have started to develop distributed energy,and the development of distributed energy in China has been a long time,but because of various factors,the proportion of the overall energy system in China is not high.Therefore,in order to clarify the development ideas of distributed energy,scientifically grasp the influence mechanism of distributed energy development,and provide useful references for relevant energy policies,this thesis has done the following work.Firstly,it composes the relevant domestic and international literature on the definition,classification and influencing factors of distributed energy,deepens the understanding of the concept and composition of distributed energy,and identifies the influencing factors in four aspects: energy and environment,technology,policy,and market and economy.Secondly,the temporal and spatial characteristics of distributed energy development in China are elaborated through literature analysis method and exploratory spatial data analysis method.On the one hand,the development of distributed energy in China is divided into four stages based on policy orientation and development direction,which are the introduction stage(1980s to 2000,with regional cogeneration and regional combined cooling,heating and power mainly),the promotion stage(2001-2008,with natural gas as the main energy source),the rapid development stage(2009-2013,with distributed photovoltaic as the main growth)and diversified development(2014-present,policies take into account natural gas distributed energy and multiple distributed renewable energy development).On the other hand,by choosing a suitable spatial weight matrix and analyzing the global and local spatial correlation of distributed energy development separately,it was finally determined that there is a spatial effect and spatial econometrics should be used for the following empirical analysis.Finally,this thesis explores the spatial spillover effects of provincial distributed energy development drivers by first constructing a spatial Durbin model using panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 2003-2019,and then extending the spatial Durbin model into a quantile form to analyze the influencing factors on the multidimensional development level of distributed energy,and the main results of the empirical evidence are as follows.(1)Urbanization is detrimental to the development of distributed energy in the whole and some regions;from the stage of development,urbanization will have a facilitating effect at the10% quantile,but with the expansion of scale,this influence mechanism will be transformed into an inhibiting effect.This thesis infers that the potential of distributed energy development in China lies in the vast rural areas,and that too rapid urbanization will lead to "hollowing out" of the countryside,which is not conducive to the future development of distributed energy.(2)The increase of investment in energy industry,the intensity of investment in R&D and the improvement of education level all have a strong driving effect on the development of distributed energy in the province,city and neighboring provinces,among which the education level and the intensity of investment in R&D have a more obvious effect on the development of distributed energy in the low quantile region.(3)Energy structure,industrial structure and environmental regulation index are all negatively correlated with the scale of distributed energy,indicating that unreasonable energy consumption structure,too high industrial share and poor environmental standards inhibit the development of distributed energy,and in addition,this inhibitory effect has significant spatial spillover effects in most regions.