| Under the background of the rapid development of urbanization,it is of great significance to explore the relationship between cultivated land and cities.Under rapid urbanization and alleviate the contradiction,which is of great significance for optimizing the urban-cultivated land pattern.In order to alleviate the sharp contradiction between urban expansion and cultivated land protection,realize the balanced development of the two,and promote the optimization of the spatial pattern of the overall urban and cultivated land,this paper takes the three municipal districts of Linyi as the research areas,and uses quantitative,model and other research methods in order to achieve the ultimate goal.Achieving sustainable urban development and stable arable land operations.First,data collection and data integration were carried out.Then,according to the land use classification data of the three districts of Linyi City in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020,the dynamic change law of land use was explored,and the contradiction between urban expansion and cultivated land was explored;In addition,the evaluation of the suitability of cultivated land and the suitability of construction land was carried out;with the help of the evaluation suitability layer,based on the multi-agent model,the future high-standard cultivated land protection areas and high-quality economic development areas were demarcated,and the conversion restrictions for future urban expansion simulations were made.District preparations.Finally,the hybrid cellular automata model is introduced,and the urban development scenario up to 2035 is simulated with 2020 as the base year,and the generation area of the multi-agent model is set as the restriction conversion rule.After checking the accuracy of the model and verifying it,the historical development of the design Scenarios,arable land priority scenarios Economic priority scenarios carry out multi-scenario urban expansion simulations,combine the two scenarios,propose a city-arable land win-win model scenario,and put forward suggestions for future urban development.(1)Exploration on the dynamic change law of urban expansion in the three districts of Linyi.The land use type is mainly long-term cultivated land and construction land,and the sum of the two areas accounts for more than 80% of the total land.Forests,grasslands,wetlands and unused land showed a downward trend,and the reduction rate gradually slowed down,and the water area showed a small increase trend.From 2005 to 2020,the proportion of cultivated land has become lower and lower,and its proportion has dropped from 67.65% in2005 to 52.23% in 2020;the proportion of construction land has become higher and higher,and its proportion has decreased from 21.47% in 2005 It has increased to 38.93% in 2020,and the contradiction between cultivated land and cities is obvious.(2)Delineation of cultivated land protection zones.The spatial heterogeneity of the suitability of cultivated land in the three districts of Linyi City is obvious.Among them,the overall suitability of cultivated land in Hedong District is stronger than that in Lanshan District and Luozhuang District.Specifically,represented by Tangtou Street,Bahu Street,Zhengwang Town and Meibu Street in the southeast of Hedong District,the arable land is the most suitable.Taking the Yihe River as the boundary,in the Lanshan District in the west of the Yihe River,Jinqueshan Street,Yinqueshan Street,Lanshan Street,Liuqing Street,Shengzhuang Street and Luozhuang Street in Luozhuang District are more suitable.Difference.The evaluation reflects that the results are in line with the actual situation,according to which the specific delineation of high-standard cultivated land protection areas is carried out.According to the designated cultivated land protection areas,it shows that most of the areas suitable for building high-standard farmland are concentrated in the eastern part of Hedong District,especially in the northeastern area.It is necessary to focus on protecting the quantity and quality of cultivated land in this area.(3)Delineation of economic development zones.,The suitability of construction land in the three districts of Linyi takes the intersection of Yihe River as the center and spreads outward from the central urban area.Among them,the northern part of the three districts has a higher terrain and is affected by the low degree of urban influence,so it is not suitable for the development of construction land.Going south,Jinqueshan Street is the main urban development area near Yihe River,and it expands to Yitang Town,Liuqing Street,Jiuqu Street,Zhimadun Street,and Shengzhuang Street area,and the suitability is relatively strong.The evaluation results are in line with reality,and the specific delineation of high-quality economic construction zones is carried out accordingly.According to the demarcated economic construction zones,it is shown that the areas suitable for economic construction are concentrated in the middle of the three districts.Specifically,Jinqueshan Street,Yinqueshan Street,Lanshan Street,Liuqing Street in Lanshan District,Shengzhuang Street and Luozhuang Street in Luozhuang District,Jiuqu Street,Zhimadun Street,Fenghuangling Street and Hedong District Xianggong Street.These areas have a relatively high level of economic development and rapid economic development,and are suitable for concentrated development of construction land.(4)Multi-scenario urban expansion simulation forecast.After the urban expansion scale forecast and the number of town-level administrative units are allocated,three scenarios are simulated.Under the historical development scenario,the free expansion pattern of the city according to the historical development trend is predicted.Under this state,the urban expansion area is the largest,and the expansion trend of the central urban area is in the form of "spreading a big cake".The urban and rural development is scattered and disorderly,the urban patches are severely fragmented,and a large amount of high-quality arable land is occupied.This shows that running an MCCA model that lacks effective constraints will produce unreasonable predictions.Under the scenario based on the priority development of cultivated land,the urban expansion pattern is predicted under the state of restricted basic farmland and high-quality cultivated land protection area.In this state,urban expansion protects a large amount of farmland,and urban development is constrained to a certain extent.Based on the economic priority development scenario,the city’s expansion pattern is predicted in the state of restricting planning and development requirements and high-quality economic construction zones.In this state,the urban urban area has a large expansion area,but the trend is obvious and orderly,and the central urban area and surrounding towns show a clear development direction.(5)Coordinate and optimize urban expansion and cultivated land protection.Combining cultivated land protection areas,economic development areas and development planning requirements,reasonably configure the conflict between the two restricted areas,set new conversion rules,and set up a win-win scenario for urban and cultivated land to take into account urban development and cultivated land protection.simulation.The forecast results fully protect the arable land,and at the same time take into account the needs of urban development to achieve the established goals.According to this paper,with the aid of quantitative evaluation and model methods,the goal of easing the sharp contradiction between urban expansion and cultivated land protection has been basically achieved.In the future,it is necessary to continuously coordinate urban and rural development,improve urban compactness,optimize urban space allocation,improve the quality of urban development,implement strict cultivated land protection system,and truly realize the coordinated development of cities and cultivated land. |
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