Vector Cellular Automata Based Land Use Change Simulation And Analysis Of Downtown Of Qidong

In a series of land use change models, Cellular Automata is the most widely used one. It belongs to microscopic dynamics model which is discrete in time, space and states. It can be applied to simulate land use change in time and space of overall study area by regional transition rules.Traditional raster-based CA has advantages such as simple data structure, higher calculation efficiency and so on. However, due to its ordered cell arrangement, single and fixed neighborhood configuration and scale-dependent, raster CA is not precise enough in land use change process of complex and irregular study area since its simulation capacity is limited. The paper takes complexity science and discrete mathematics as theoretical basis, researches the principle and method of vector-based CA, and builds VecCA land use change model. What’s more, the paper takes downtown of Qidong as the study area, simulates its land use change process from2002to2007. Finally, the paper valuates and analyzes the simulation result.The research contents of the paper are:(1) Contrasts and analyzes the difference of vector-based and raster-based Cellular Automata’s parameters:the difference of cell’s definition, the difference of neighbor cells repartition, the difference of transition rule and so on.(2) Analyzes influence of driving factors of downtown of Qidong quantitatively according to land use changes’ spatial statistics. What’s more, variability analysis, correlation analysis and principal component analysis are used to build the weighting formula of spatial driving factors of land use change in study area. Researches how to build the neighborhood configuration in favorable principle and sets transition rule of vector-based CA. Additionally, VecCA land use change model is built up by combining parameters such as cellular space, transition rule and neighborhood configuration together.(3) Programs the prototype system of VecCA model by ArcEngine9.3on Visual Studio2008, simulates land use change of downtown of Qidong of2007by data of the study area of2002. What’s more, contrasts between simulation result and study area’s real land use situation of2007. Finally, evaluates the simulation accuracy and analyzes the cause of inaccuracy.