Effect Of Housing Cost And Housing Property Right On The Fertility Intentions Of Floating Population

The 7th national census shows that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in our country fell to 1.3 in 2020,lower than the population replacement level(2.1),and falls into the "Low fertility trap"(1.5).A rapid decline in fertility levels would not only accelerate population ageing,but also reduce labor supply,damage economic development and social security system.In order to ensure population safety and healthy development of socio-economy,we issued " Two-Child Policy" and " Three-Child Policy" successively.However,both policies failed to reverse the trend of low fertility.It is unlikely to get rid of the" Low fertility trap" by implementing fertility policy alone.Floating population is an important part of China’s population,especially the reproductive population.In recent years,with the rise in urban housing prices and rents,floating population is at a disadvantage in the urban housing market.Housing cost and housing property right could be breakthrough point to understand low fertility intention.How housing difficulties affect floating population’s fertility intention is an important issue.Based on the 2020 survey data of floating population in the Yangtze River Delta,this study applies Children’s Cost-utility Theory and The Second Demographic Transition Theory to analyze the effect of housing cost and housing property right on quantity preference,gender preference and time preference of fertility intentions among floating population.This study enriches the theoretical level of fertility intention research and expands the conceptual dimension of fertility intention.It is found that floating population of childbearing age expect to have 1.73 children on average,and 64.69%of them expect to have two or more children.However,only 23.31%of floating population plan to have a second child,shows a great deviation between fertility demand and birth plan.In terms of time preference of fertility intentions,63.12%of floating population want to give birth within three years after marriage,which is the mainstream choice among floating population.As to gender preference,about 20%of the floating population prefer sons over daughters,and gender neutrality is the mainstream preference.This study also finds the mechanism of housing property right and housing price on fertility intentions.For most Chinese families,homeownership is a necessary for child-raising,housing property right and housing price become an important part of the fertility costs,and then affect the decision-making of childbearing.Housing property right has a significant effect on quantity preference,time preference and gender preference among floating population.Non-buyers not only prefer fewer children,but also prefer late childbearing.The lack of housing property right also leads to a gender neutrality attitude.Housing prices affect quantity preference and time preference among floating population,but have no significant effect on their gender preference.Higher housing prices not only reduce their uncertain willingness to have a second child,thus encourage them to abandon the plan of having a second child,but also play a catalytic role in delaying childbearing.For floating population with multiple house ownership,wealth effect of housing prices on quantity preference and time preference doesn’t exist.Finally,the effect of housing property right and housing cost on fertility intentions is moderated by fertility motivation.The effect of housing property right and housing prices on fertility intentions is limited among floating population with traditional fertility motivation,and their fertility intentions remains "rigid" to a certain extent.Compared with traditional fertility motivation,modern fertility motivation is not only closely related to fewer and later births,as well as decline of son preferences.People with modern fertility motivation are more sensitive to child-raising costs,especially costs on housing.Housing property rights and housing prices are more likely to influence birth decision-making among floating population with modern fertility motivation.Based on those findings,in order to raise fertility intentions of floating population,we should on the one hand steady the real estate market to raise the expectation of possessing housing property right,and increase the strength of housing support policy to reduce housing burden;and cultivate a positive fertility culture and stimulate the endogenous fertility motivation on the other.