Analysis Of China’s Population Fertility Status And Influencing Factors Based On Macro And Micro Perspectives

Since the founding of New China,China’s population reproduction type has changed from the traditional population reproduction type of high birth,high death,low natural growth into a transitional stage of high birth,low death,high natural growth,and finally developed into the current low birth,low death and low natural growth stage.China is currently facing negative population growth led by fertility,with the natural growth rate of population dropping to-0.60‰ in 2022.In addition,the age structure of the population is also developing towards the direction of decreasing the size of the working-age population and deepening the degree of aging.Therefore,studying the current birth situation and its influencing factors is of great significance to promote birth level,optimize population structure and promote the balanced development of population.This paper mainly uses the data of the national population census and China General Survey of Social Conditions(CSS),supplemented by the data of China Statistical Yearbook,Statistical Yearbook of Population and Employment in China,China Health Statistical Yearbook,etc.,to analyze the fertility status of China’s population and its influencing factors from macro and micro perspectives.Firstly,the fertility rate by age,total fertility rate,fertility coefficient,birth number composition and other indicators were calculated to make descriptive statistics on the fertility level and pattern of Chinese population.Secondly,the differences of fertility levels and fertility patterns in provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central government)were compared and analyzed.Spatial autocorrelation method was used to analyze the spatial correlation and agglomeration of fertility levels and socio-economic development levels in different regions.Cluster analysis was used to conclude the categories and corresponding characteristics of fertility levels in different regions.Thirdly,combined with the methods of cascading analysis,ordered logistic regression and Poisson regression,this paper analyzed the childbearing behavior and its influencing factors of the population of childbearing age from the aspects of individual attribute,family attribute,social security and regional attribute,and established Light GBM classification model to measure and compare the importance of characteristics affecting the childbearing behavior of the population of childbearing age with different characteristics.The mediating effect model is used to explore the intermediate mechanism of the main explanatory variables affecting childbearing behavior.Finally,the following conclusions are reached:Firstly,the overall fertility level of Chinese people of childbearing age in 2020 is not optimistic.The total fertility rate is 1.30,which is far below the replacement level.The fertility pattern has changed,the average childbearing age has moved back,and the proportion of second-child and thirdchild births has increased significantly compared with that in 2010.There are significant differences in fertility levels and patterns among different levels of education,urban and rural areas,and regions.Secondly,the fertility level of all provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)has a positive spatial correlation,and the fertility level is significantly negatively correlated with the socio-economic development level in space for a long time.In 2020,the socio-economic development level and fertility level of Xinjiang,Sichuan,Yunnan and Guangxi showed a significant low-high negative correlation.There are regional differences between the fertility level and the socio-economic development level all over the country.Thirdly,the proportion of 40 to 49 years old who actually had two children or more was 58.55%,and the childbearing behavior of different characteristics of childbearing age groups was significantly different.The childbearing behavior was significantly affected by education level,per capita family income,relative family income,family size and endowment insurance,the age,marital status,urban and rural areas,the region and time.Fourthly,compared with rural areas,the marital status and educational level of people of childbearing age in urban areas are more important to their childbearing behavior.Combined with the results of cluster analysis,age characteristics had a higher significance on the childbearing behavior in Class IV region,while family size characteristics had the highest importance on the childbearing behavior in Class V region.Fifth,there is a mediating effect between the influence of education level or family size on childbearing behavior,both of which have an impact on childbearing behavior through influencing fertility desire,accounting for 5.36% and 8.77% respectively.Finally,according to the research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: first,focusing on the low fertility level areas,implement birth support measures according to local conditions;Second,strengthening education and guidance,encouraging young people to get married and have children at the appropriate age,and husband and wife to share the responsibility of family parenting;third,building a childbearing friendly society,guiding and supervising the employers to protect the legitimate rights and interests of female workers,improving relative income;Fourth,improving the supply of public services.In particular,the public service system of "one senior citizen and one child" should be improved to ease the burden on families of childbearing,parenting and education.