Analysis Of The Opinions On Childbearing And Fertility Behavior In Low Fertility Areas

The Fertility level declined dramatically in almost all of the country in recent decades. There are more and more researches on fertility during the same time. However, In terms of the domestic research on fertility, there are at least two topics worthy of more discussion. First, Definition and quantitative analysis on women’s childbearing opinions is very limited. Second, the relationship between fertility desire and fertility behavior is not so clear. This dissertation is attempted to shed light on these two aspects.Using the data of Jiangsu survey, the dissertation mainly analyzes the childbearing opinions, fertility desire, fertility intention as well as the fertility behavior. The difference between the fertility disire and intention is particularly concerned in the analysis. At the end of the dissertation, the change of the fertility level in the future and the choice of the family planning policy are also discussed.The basic results of this dissertation are as follows:(1) The opinions on childbearing have very important effect on fertility desire as well as the fertility behavior. The dissertation quantitatively analyzes the opinions on childbearing in five aspects, finding that the mainly motivation of childbearing is to satisfy the spiritual needs instead of material returns.(2) The social ideal family size is not equal to the personal family size. On average, the latter is lower than the former one about 0.2 in survey. In general, most of the respondents do not want to have second child. However, respondents with higher educational level or higher income level are more eager to have another baby.(3) There is inconsistency between the fertility desire and intention. Among the respondents who want to have 2 baby and qualified to have 2 children according to the Family Planning Regulation, only few of them plan to give another birth. The reason of this phenomenon include two aspects: high cost of childbearing and low utility of the second child. (4) The fertility level is very low in Jiangsu Province. Most of the couples qualified to have 2 children do not want to give more birth. According to the current family planning policy, more than 70% of the couples are qualified to have 2 children in age group 20-29. The TFR would not resurgence very high if the policy allow couples which either husband or wife is only child in urban areas to have 2 children.