Research On The Influencing Factors Of Women’s Willingness To Have Multiple Children And Family Support Polices

As the “fundamental foundation” for a country’s prosperity and development,maintaining a good population structure is crucial for social development.However,in recent years,the overall fertility rate in China has shown a downward trend,and the total fertility rate is only 1.3 in 2020.The key to solving the problem of low-level fertility is to understand the factors that affect women’s fertility willingness.This thesis conducts research on this issue,aiming to explore the factors that affect the willingness of women of childbearing age to have multiple children,and to explore possible family support policies to improve fertility willingness in response to the oveall low fertility rate in China.The main tasks are as follows:1.In the comparative study of classification models,this thesis selects 19 characteristic variables from the CFPS data in 2020 based on family and social factors.Then we use the Catboost model and the Catboost model based on SMOTE oversampling to carry out a classification study on whether women aged 20 to 49 are willing to have multiple children,and compare it with traditional research methods.The results show that: compared to the traditional Logistic algorithm model,the Catboost model has better modeling performance and improves classification accuracy by 1percentage point.And compared to the Catboost model and SMOTE-Logistic model,the SMOTE-Catboost model exhibits superior classification performance.And the classification accuracy of the SMOTE-Catboost model has been improved by 7 percentage points compared to the Catboost model and 2 percentage points compared to the SMOTE-Logistic model.2.When studying the factors that affect women’s willingness to have multiple children,this thesis focuses on women of childbearing age aged 20 to 49,who were born in the 1970 s and were more affected by family planning policies.Then the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm with better classification performance is used to analyze the influencing factors of women’s willingness to have multiple children and further analyze the changes in the influencing factors of women’s willingness to have multiple children over time.The results show that:(1)The importance ranking of women’s willingness to have multiple children in 2020 is social status,intergenerational care,education level,and age.Among them,female groups with high social status and high levels are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children;The willingness of women to have multiple children decreases with the increase of education level and increases with age.(2)Comparing the influencing factors of women’s willingness to have multiple children in 2018,it is found that the important influencing factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children in 2018 were mainly related to economic factors.The most important influencing factor is the location of income in the local area.However,in 2020,the important influencing factor switched to intergenerational care and related indicators reflecting women’s psychological status,and the importance of economic factors decreased.3.When exploring family support policies that may increase fertility willingness,this thesis collects panel data from 35 OECD countries between 2010 and 2017,and quantitatively analyzed the impact of different family support policies on the total fertility rate by using system GMM method.The results show that: family cash subsidies have a significant positive effect on fertility,and the k-means clustering analysis manifests that the effect of cash subsidies in the “social democratic” model is more stable.However,combined with the analysis of per capita GDP of 208 countries in the world,in the group of high-income countries,the effect of family cash subsidy policy on the total fertility rate is small.For every 1 percentage point increases in the ratio of family cash subsidy to GDP,the total fertility rate will increase by 2.1 thousandths.In addition,family benefits in kind and services have no significant impact on the total fertility rate.