A Study On The Space-time Evolution,Influencing Factors And Countermeasures Of Chinese Residents’ Fertility Intention

China’s family planning policy has effectively controlled the rapid growth of the population,but with the acceleration of urbanization and rapid economic growth,China’s population structure problem has become increasingly prominent,and the fertility rate has continued to decline.If it is allowed to continue to develop,the fertility rate will inevitably fall into the trap of low fertility,and lead to the aggravation of a series of problems such as labor shortage and aging population,which will affect the country’s social and economic development plan.In this context,this thesis discusses the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China’s fertility intention,aiming to clarify the changing characteristics and development trend of Chinese residents’ fertility intention,analyze the factors affecting Chinese residents’ fertility intention,and propose countermeasures to stimulate China’s fertility intention.Firstly,this thesis sorts out the theories and literature related to fertility intention,and lays the foundation for the next research.Secondly,from the three levels of willing fertility number,willing sex and childbearing motivation,the evolution of initial fertility intention and fertility intentions for another child in time and space is studied.Thirdly,based on cost-utility theory,quality and quantity substitution theory and planned behavior theory,the factors affecting Chinese residents’ fertility intention are analyzed from three aspects: personal characteristics,family characteristics and social characteristics,and a research hypothesis is proposed.Then,based on the variables selected by the China Family Longitudinal Survey(CFPS)2018,the influencing factors of initial fertility intention and re-fertility intention were analyzed by using the ordered logit model,binomial logit model,Poisson regression model and probit model.Finally,based on the previous research results and drawing on the experience of foreign fertility policies,we try to put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The main findings of this thesis are:First,the number of initial intentions to have children showed a trend of decreasing with generations,and the proportion of groups with the intention to have more children was low,only 33.83%;The number of willing births in provinces showed great differences,the number of initial willing births showed a trend of gradual decrease from north to south,and the proportion of groups with willingness to have more children in coastal areas was relatively high;The two showed significant heterogeneity between different subpopulations.The initial willingness to have children and the willingness to reproduce have a certain degree of consistency in the two aspects of willingness to have sex and motivation.In terms of the willingness to have children,the gender preference of "both children and daughters" dominates,and the proportion increases with the advancement of generations;"Male preference" is relatively low,but it has not disappeared.In terms of childbearing motivation,they tend to satisfy individual emotions with individualistic reproductive motivation rather than family motivation.Second,as far as residents’ initial fertility intention is concerned,males,stable marriage relationships,agricultural hukou,religious beliefs,larger family size and number of children,and increased public education investment will enhance residents’ willingness to have children;The higher the education level,the higher the number of housing,the higher the perceived degree of dependency burden,and the purchase of pension insurance will have a negative impact on fertility intention.Third,the influencing factors of residents’ initial fertility intention and re-fertility intention are similar and different.Male sex,stable marital status,religious beliefs,larger family sizes and increased public investment in education can also promote residents’ willingness to have more children.The increase in urbanization rate will promote residents’ willingness to have more children,while the purchase of medical insurance will have a negative impact on their willingness to have more children.In addition,there were obvious differences in the influencing factors of the willingness of residents who had already had one child and residents who had already had two children.Finally,on the basis of the above research,combined with the experience of fertility support policies in developed countries,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions that can better stimulate residents’ willingness to have children,such as completely abolishing the birth limit,creating a gender equality environment,reducing the cost of childbearing and parenting,improving the social security system,and creating a childbirth-friendly atmosphere.