An Analysis Of The Factors Affecting Family Fertility Decision Making In China Under The Constraints Of Social Economy And Fertility Cost

With the development of economy,the impact of family planning policy on the fertility level in China has been declining,and social and economic development has become the main factor in determining the fertility level.Under the situation,in order to explore the present situation of low fertility in China and its causes,this paper analyzes the relationship between the number of the children and income in the family by the family-based decision-making model of "cost-utility".The result shows that family fertility and income has a "U type" relationship,that is,when the family is poor,the fertility declines with the income increase;when the family is rich,the fertility increases with the income increases.In the analysis of factors related to family fertility,we found that the rising consumer prices,the increasing rate of urbanization,the expected retirement age delaying,the fertility desire decreasing,all these factors reduced family fertility to a certain extent,and the restriction of some factors are still growing.Then,using the panel data of 30 provinces in China during 2000-2013 and the mixed effect model to do the empirical analysis.Results show that the index,which represent per capita income divided by child-rearing cost during 0-5 years old,have a significant negative impact on BMR which represent birth population/marriage registration logarithm.The result suggesting that increased child support costs may contribute to a decline in fertility.Also the housing investment,which on behalf of the family housing pressure,has a significant negative correlation with the BMR.This shows that the rising cost of living housing,resulting in increased pressure on life,will reduce the number of families on the needs of their children.At the same time,the study found that the relationship between per capita income and BMR has a "U type" curve,that is,with the increase in per capita income,BMR decline at first,then rise.It verified the above conclusion which drawn from the family-based decision-making model of "cost-utility".In addition,the rate of urbanization,the proportion of women in higher education growth rate also has a negative relationship with BMR.This reveals that,with the improvement of urbanization level and women's social status,the family's fertility will be a certain degree of inhibition.Based on the results of this paper,we found that it is hard to change China's low fertility rate in a short time.To reach the objective of two children policy requires the assistance of external forces.Finally,according to the reality of our country,put forward some corresponding policy recommendations.