| Guangdong Province is not only the largest economic province in China,but also the most populous province.The aging population problem that is gradually intensifying in China is becoming more prominent in Guangdong,which will inevitably affect various aspects of China’s largest economic province.The issue of population aging in various cities in Guangdong Province,like the well-known imbalance in regional economic development in Guangdong Province,also shows different regional characteristics.In order to promote the long-term balanced development of Guangdong’s economy and society,reduce the negative impact of population aging on the economy and society of various cities in Guangdong,and explore the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of population aging in various cities in Guangdong,it is of great practical significance to formulate relevant specific policies according to local conditions.This article mainly explores the characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Guangdong Province from two dimensions: time and space.Firstly,the aging coefficient,age to child ratio,elderly dependency ratio,and aging age concentration rate are selected as indicator systems to reflect the research on population aging in Guangdong Province.The spatiotemporal changes in the comprehensive level of population aging in Guangdong are analyzed,and the influencing factors of the comprehensive level of population aging are explored.Secondly,in the vertical dimension of time,by analyzing the changes in the aging coefficient,number of elderly population,age to child ratio,and elderly dependency ratio indicators at the provincial and municipal levels at three special time points in2000,2010,and 2020,the dynamic evolution characteristics of Guangdong’s population aging over time are described;By analyzing the changes in the annual growth rate of the elderly population,the annual growth rate of the total population,and the concentration rate of elderly age at the provincial and municipal levels at two time points in 2010 and 2020,this paper describes the aging process of population with different characteristics in various regions of Guangdong.Thirdly,on the horizontal spatial dimension,it focuses on describing the spatial evolution differences of population aging in various cities in Guangdong,and uses the global Moran’s I statistics,analysis of different spatial distribution laws,Moran scatter map,LISA agglomeration map to carry out local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Specifically,the dimensionality is eliminated through the range standard,and then the entropy method is used to construct a comprehensive level indicator of population aging in Guangdong Province,analyzing the changes in the comprehensive level of population aging in various cities in Guangdong Province.Finally,an indicator system for the influencing factors of the comprehensive level of population aging was constructed by selecting natural growth rate,average education years,per capita GDP,and urbanization rate.The GWR model was used for statistical regression to determine the specific impact of each factor on the comprehensive level of population aging in Guangdong,in order to provide reference for the formulation of specific policies.The results indicate that: 1)Guangdong Province has a relatively high degree of population aging and the process is significantly accelerating.2)There are obvious regional differences in the level of population aging in cities at different levels.There is a cluster effect on population aging indicators among cities at various levels,and the cluster effect is gradually increasing in time.In terms of geographical location,the population aging observation values of cities in Guangdong Province are gradually increasing from the Pearl River Delta region to the eastern,western and northern regions of Guangdong.3)The natural growth rate,average years of education,per capita GDP,and urbanization rate have a significant impact on the overall level of population aging in various cities in Guangdong.Among them,the Rate of natural increase inhibits population aging,the increase of average years of education promotes population aging,the increase of per capita GDP first promotes then inhibits population aging under certain conditions,and the increase of urbanization rate inhibits population aging.There are specific development patterns in the region,and the intensity of population aging influenced by average years of education and per capita GDP shows a gradual weakening trend from the Pearl River Delta to the eastern,western,and northern regions of Guangdong. |
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