| Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China has entered into an aging society.Against the background of increasing life expectancy and decreasing birth rate,the aging problem has become increasingly serious,showing characteristics of large scale and rapid growth.The impact of aging on China’s economic and social development will be further accentuated in the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.At the same time,due to the vast area of the country,there are obvious disparities between the economic and social development levels of different regions in China,which leads to an uneven process of population aging.This paper selects panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2021,and uses exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial measures to characterize the spatial distribution of population aging in China and its regional differences,and analyzes the factors affecting population aging,as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the current situation of population aging in China from2001 to 2021,and judges the stage trend characteristics of population aging in China based on the age concentration rate of old age.Secondly,the exploratory spatial data analysis method is applied to study the regional distribution characteristics of population aging in China,and the spatial weight matrix is constructed by combining the research questions,and the spatial correlation of population aging in China is explored with the help of global Moran value and local Moran value.Finally,the causes of regional differences in population aging in China are studied in depth,the indicators are selected and quantified from four aspects: population change,economic development,culture and education,and medical level,and the spatial Durbin model under individual time double fixed effects is selected as a tool to analyze the influencing factors of population aging in China through a series of tests such as LM,Hausman,LR,etc.,and the spatial Durbin model generated by each factor is explored The spatial effects are explored,and the total effects are split into direct and indirect effects through partial differential decomposition in order to grasp more clearly the effects produced by spatial spillover effects.The following conclusions are drawn from the above study:(1)Chinese population aging is accelerating in general,and from the distribution characteristics,the Yangtze River basin and the northeastern region have the most prominent population aging,showing a trend of expansion from the eastern coast to the western inland;(2)There is a positive global spatial autocorrelation in the degree of population aging in China,which shows aggregation characteristics in terms of spatial geography and is significant in individual regions,mainly including the high aging aggregation belt in Yangtze River Delta,the high aging aggregation belt in Hubei,Chongqing and Guizhou,and the low aging aggregation belt in Northwest China;(3)The natural population growth rate,gender ratio,mobile population,gross regional product,and average years of education have significant inhibiting effects on population aging,while the medical level has significant advancing effects on population aging,and the mobile population and gross regional product have spatial spillover effects on population aging.spatial spillover effect on population aging,causing changes in the age structure of the population and shifting of resources in various regions,which makes population aging present a spatial aggregation.Finally,based on the research results,suggestions are made for the current stage of aging to help the development of healthy aging. |
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