| With the advancement of technology and social development,the average life expectancy of the population continues to increase,the birth and death rates continue to fall,and the problem of ageing population spreads globally,becoming one of the serious social problems in the world today.China has the largest elderly population base and the fastest ageing rate in the world.Anhui Province,as the dividing line between the northern and southern regions of China,entered the primary ageing society as early as the 1990 s and is at the forefront of population ageing in the country.By the end of 2020,there will be a total of9.159 million people aged 65 and above in Anhui province,accounting for 15.01% of the total population,exceeding the 14% stage of population ageing and marking Anhui’s entry into a deeply ageing society.Therefore,this paper conducts the following research from a spatial perspective:(1)Based on the national population census data in 2000,2010 and 2020,the ageing rate is used as the basic research indicator to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of population ageing in each county of Anhui Province.Static indicators(ageing rate),dynamic indicators(change in age structure,change in the number of elderly and non-elderly population,growth rate of elderly population)and spatial autocorrelation are used to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of population ageing in counties of Anhui Province,and to classify the types of population ageing in counties of Anhui Province.(2)Based on social science data such as the statistical yearbooks of prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province,the China County Statistical Yearbook and the China City Statistical Yearbook,a system of indicators of population ageing influencing factors is constructed,and the influencing factors of population ageing in counties in Anhui Province are analyzed by means of factor detection and interaction detection in geographic probes.(3)The current situation of population ageing in counties in Anhui Province is summarized in the above study: the population ageing in counties in Anhui Province is increasing at a high rate,accelerating the burden of social old-age care;the ageing rate in southern Anhui and the cities around Hefei is increasing rapidly,with a spatial clustering of ageing;residual ageing areas are the main ones,with diverse old-age care needs difficult to be met.The results of the study show that:(1)from the characteristics of temporal changes,the degree of population ageing deepens in all districts and counties of Anhui Province;from the characteristics of spatial distribution,the population ageing shows a general pattern of "low in the north and high in the south",and the spatial clustering effect is strengthened.The high-high agglomeration area is spreading from southern Anhui to the riverine area in central Anhui,while the low-low agglomeration area is gradually showing a face-to-face distribution in northern Anhui.From the classification of population ageing,counties in Anhui province are divided into five types: agglomeration-dilution type(including agglomeration-dilution type I and type II),in situ ageing type,residual ageing type,natural ageing type and agglomeration ageing type.(2)The primary determinant of population ageing in Anhui Province is the population ageing base,while population mobility also plays a key role.Economic and natural factors have different influences on population ageing in Anhui Province,while the influence of social factors is less significant in the single-factor exploration,but the decision-making power increases significantly after the interaction of the influencing factors,which also indicates that social factors are the invisible influencing factors of population ageing.In general,population ageing influencing factors in Anhui counties present a complex driving mechanism.(3)In response to the above status quo,policy suggestions are put forward to promote the construction of county urbanization and improve the quality of county elderly services;promote regional economic development and curb the brain drain;comprehensively construct the elderly service system and improve the spatial allocation of the elderly industry.Based on the above analysis,the current situation of population ageing in counties in Anhui Province is summarized,and policy advice is proposed in a scientific and comprehensive manner with positive population ageing as the core,in the hope of promoting long-term balanced population development in counties in Anhui Province.Counties.Figure [23] Table [10] Reference [107]... |
