| Since the 21 st century,global population aging has been accelerating.Population aging has exerted extensive and profound influence on all aspects of human development,especially socio-economic development.Compared with the developed countries,the contradiction of“Aging before affluence” is more prominent in China.As an important hub of Northeast Asia,the Bohai Rim region has a high economic potential.At present,population aging rate in Liaoning Province is the highest in China,while aging population in Shandong Province is the largest in China.Population aging rate is more than 14.00% in the Bohai Rim region at the provincial scale,which indicates that the aging society has come.The study of population aging in the Bohai Rim region is typical.In 2020,Chinese government promulgated a national strategy to “actively coping with population aging”.The study of population aging in the Bohai Rim region is of great significance in promoting the demographic long-term balanced development and achieving high quality development and Chinese path to modernization.Firstly,based on the data of previous population censuses and aging population density,population aging rate,aging population growth rate and other indicators,this thesis analyzes spatial-temporal evolution of population aging at different spatial scales in the Bohai Rim region,so as to classify the types of population aging.Secondly,this thesis selects different representative indicators from two aspects of population factors and socio-economic factors to analyze the factors of population aging by Geodetector and Multi-scale Geographical Weighted Regression(MGWR).Thirdly,the Cobb-Douglas production function is used to analyze the regional economic effects of population aging in the Bohai Rim region.Finally,according to the main problems facing the population aging in the Bohai Rim region,this thesis puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During 2000-2020,the areas with high density of aging population are gradually expanding from the municipal districts with high level of economic development to the surrounding areas in the Bohai Rim region.The degree of population aging in the Bohai Rim region is gradually deepening.The Variation coefficient,Gini coefficient and Theil index of population aging rate in the Bohai Rim region increased in different amplitude.The gap between population aging degree increased continuously at district and county scale.The growth rate of aging population shows a decreasing trend of prefectural district-county level city-county-autonomous county.In general,the degree of population aging in the Bohai Rim is higher in the east than in the west,with Liaodong Peninsula and Jiaodong Peninsula as the core.The spatial cluster characteristics of population aging in the Bohai Rim region are gradually increasing,but the spatial cluster characteristics of district and county scales are weaker than prefectural scales.The H-H cluster area is mainly distributed in the Jiaodong Peninsula and most of Liaoning Province,and the scope gradually shifts from Shandong Province to Liaoning Province.The L-L cluster area is mainly distributed in the southwest and central south of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the scope is gradually expanding.(2)Population and socio-economic factors have an important impact on population aging.And then,the interaction of any two factors has a greater impact.Population aging has a negative spatial relationship with fertility level,population inertia,proportion of minority population and migration rate,but the direction and intensity are different.Population aging rate base is the key factor affecting population aging,showing a significant positive promoting effect.The effect of per capita GDP on population aging rate in spatial dimension is gradually shifting from inhibitory effect to positive effect.The effects of urbanization rate,hospital beds per 10,000 persons,average years of education on population aging rate change from promoting effect to inhibiting effect,and the direction and intensity of regression coefficient fluctuate with time.(3)The influence direction of population aging on regional economic growth is different in the Bohai Rim region.When the population aging rate is less than 7.38%,population aging has an inhibitory effect on regional economic growth.When the population aging rate is from 7.38% to 14.95%,population aging will promote economic growth.However,when population aging rate exceeds 14.95%,it turns into a restraining effect again.From the perspective of the type of population aging,population aging in the shallow aging stage and the deep aging stage has a promoting effect on economic growth,while the effect of population aging on regional economic growth turns negative when entering the aging society stage.(4)In the process of realizing active aging,the Bohai Rim region is faced with serious problems such as heavy pension burden,“Aging before affluence”restricting urban development,serious population loss,high child-rearing cost,low fertility level and poor pension environment.This thesis proposes some measures to accelerate the realization of Active Aging and promote high quality development in the Bohai Rim region,such as: the government should take appropriate measures according to the time and place to improve the regional pension and medical environment,strengthen the construction of infrastructure for the aging population,attract talents to settle down and labor force to "returning home for entrepreneurship",improve the fertility environment,raise the fertility rate of second and third children,strengthen the mutual support of aging population within the Bohai Rim region,accelerate the development of health education for aging population,etc. |
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