| Chongqing,Zhejiang and other provinces and cities have taken the lead in establishing Indicators trading centers across the country to establish a Cross-counties`Supplementary Cultivated Land Indicators(SCL indicators)and Increase-and-Decrease Linkage Indicators(IDL Indicators)trading mechanism in the province,and as experience,it has been generally promoted and implemented across the country.SCL Indicators and the IDL indicators transactions,as an institutional innovation connected with the international land development right trading mechanism,have been practiced in my country for more than ten years and achieved certain results,breaking the barrier constraints of the indicators,fixed land,and restrictions on factor flow restrictions.It helps to improve the efficiency of land resource allocation and promote the area sharing of land development value-added income.However,the current research on the market supply and demand of cross-district and county indicators transactions in central provinces is not enough,especially the lack of network characteristics,influencing factors and rational evaluations of SCL indicators and the IDL indicators transactions in the provinces.The cases and information provided by the provincial inter-provincial transaction mechanism research are not sufficient.To this end,this article takes Hubei Province as an example.Based on the basic data and information of cross-district and county SCL indicators and the IDL indicators transactions in recent years,from the analysis of the provinces,counties,trading prices,and number of transactions.The market status and network characteristics of the transaction analysis affects the main factors of the district and county’s participation in indicators transactions.Try to evaluate the risk of indicators transactions from the scale and price rationality of the indicator.The real dilemma of the transaction proposes to optimize policy suggestions.The research conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)In recent years,the land indicators trading market of cross-district and county in Hubei Province has developed rapidly.The average annual growth rates of the IDL indicators transactions from SCL indicators and 2017-2019 from 2016-2018 to 2017-2019were 89.33%and 643.21%,respectively.Two types of land indicators are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of Western Hubei and Hubei hills.The main supply districts and counties of SCL indicators include Lishui County(672.10 hm~2),Yigui County(576.87 hm~2),Tongcheng County(446.86 hm~2),etc.The supply districts and counties are mainly Yingshan County(330.35 hm~2),Liyang District(310.67 hm2),Macheng(283.85 hm~2),etc.SCL indicators’purchase district and county are mainly Hongshan(1257.39 hm~2),Hannan District(1212.03 hm~2),East and West Lake District(996.30 hm2),etc.,the purchase districts and counties of the the IDL indicators indicators mainly include Huanghua District(947.35 hm~2),Hongshan District(806.47 hm~2),Caidian District(786.19 hm~2),etc.During the research period,the direction of transaction price changes in two types of indicators was different.The average transaction price of SCL indicators in 2016-2018 was 1.7493 million yuan/hm~2,2.1378 million yuan/hm~2and3.9467 million yuan/hm~2.The scarcity of the indicators is gradually emerging,and the annual premium rate exceeds 100%,indicating that the indicators base price setting is low,which is not conducive to the explicit value of the indicator.53.427 million yuan/hm~2and4.541 million yuan/hm~2,the annual decline is basically stabilized at about 15%.However,its average base price of transactions has gradually risen each year,and the base price setting gradually approaches its actual value.Among them,the average price of the SCL indicators prices transferred from the Jianghan Plain,the northern Hubei Gangpi,the East Hills and the Hills of East East Hubei decreased in order,and the price space of the indicators transferred from the supply districts and counties of the IDL indicators was small.During the research period,the quality of the supplement SCL indicators and the IDL indicators transactions in the market has improved.Among them,the quality of SCL indicators has significant space differences.The quality of SCL indicators transferred from the Jianghan Plain and the Gangdi County,Hubei Province is significantly higher than that of SCL indicators.In Xishan District and East Hubei hills,the quality and space of the indicators of production is serious,showing the problems such as new cultivated land and urban expansion and occupation of cultivated land.(2)The inter-district and county land indicators transaction market in Hubei Province is not mature,but compared with SCL indicators transaction,the IDL indicators transaction has a relatively high degree of marketization.There are market segmentation phenomena in both types of land indicators transactions,but the flow obstruction of SCL indicators is more significant,mainly because the ambiguity of the price measurement standard of SCL indicators transaction leads to the insufficient incentive of the purchase indicators at the demand end,and the indicators transaction mainly relies on the implicit cooperation and collusion between the supply and demand subjects.The supply end of SCL indicators has a high degree of individual dependence on the demand end,and the indicator flow direction is qualitative.60.42%of the supply end flows all of its SCL indicators into the single demand end,and the indicator outflow channel is single,resulting in the weak resistance of the market risk of the supply end of SCL indicators.The important node cities in SCL indicators trading network are Huangpi District,Dongxihu District,Caidian District and other demand end counties;the important node cities in the IDL indicators trading network are Huangpi District,Caidian District,Hongshan District and other demand end counties.The total weighted degree of demand end counties is significantly higher than the supply end,and the demand end occupies the main position in the trading market.(3)From the social and economic characteristics of the counties participating in the indicators trading in Hubei Province,the disposable income of farmers in the SCL indicators and the IDL indicators market supply areas is low,while the demand areas have scarce cultivated land resources and large stock of urban construction land.In addition,the quality of SCL indicators or the IDL indicators on the trading platform has a significant positive impact on the transaction price,and the land price with higher quality is higher.At the same time,the local fiscal revenue is relatively low,relatively high altitude supply area counties,such as Yuan’an County in the mountainous area of western Hubei and Tongcheng County in the hilly area of eastern Hubei,its two types of indicators prices are relatively high.The quality of SCL indicators and the IDL indicators participating in the transaction is mainly affected by geographical factors such as altitude,the former is also negatively affected by the area of rural residential land and urban construction land,and the latter is negatively affected by the increment of fixed assets investment and positively affected by the increment of the output value of the secondary and tertiary industries.(4)The limit supply and demand relationship of SCL indicators and the IDL indicators in Hubei Province has significant spatial heterogeneity.In the long run,the indicators demand of all districts and counties will increase rapidly in the future.In particular,the SCL indicators demand in the southwest of eastern Hubei hills and the adjacent eastern border area of Jianghan Plain will be relatively large in the future,while the the IDL indicators demand in eastern Hubei hills will be relatively large in the future.The above areas are the concentrated areas for the main buyers of future indicators.Overall,the transaction scale of SCL indicators and the IDL indicators is reasonable,and the indicators transfer or purchase scale basically meets the relative demand of each district and county.But Hongshan District,Caidian District,Dongxihu District and other indicator demand areas with high demand bought less SCL indicators at the present stage compared with the theoretical demand;Huangpi District,Hongshan District and Caidian district bought less the IDL indicators compared with the theoretical demand;while Hong’an County and other areas had high demand for future indicators and sold more SCL indicators and the IDL indicators at the present stage.The indicators transfer scale is unreasonable.From 2016 to 2018,the minimum theoretical price per mu of SCL indicators transferred out of Hubei province was 1.3420 million yuan,1.7720 million yuan and 1.8317 million yuan respectively,and the rationality indicators of the transaction price was 0.94,-0.09 and-0.25,respectively.After 2017,the overall indicators transfer price began to lower than the theoretical lower limit of the indicators transfer price.And the deviation degree between transaction price and theoretical price deepens year by year.The theoretical price per mu of the IDL indicators from 2017 to 2019 was2.2571 million yuan,2.0970 million yuan and 2.3461 million yuan respectively.In the past three years,the rationality indicators of the indicators price was-0.12,-0.06 and 0.01respectively,showing an increasing trend year by year,and the gap between the transaction price and the theoretical price gradually decreased.By 2019,it will be basically within the reasonable range.It can be seen from the above that SCL indicators and the IDL indicators transactions across districts and counties in Hubei Province have such realistic difficulties as low degree of marketization,abandonment of newly added farmland,and intensifying regional unbalanced development.To this end,the study proposes to broaden the market access at the demand end,reduce the upper limit of indicators purchase scale,improve the listing bidding system,and promote the fairness and transparency of the trading market.We should strengthen supervision over the whole process of indicators trading,implement the main responsibilities at each stage,establish dynamic criteria for indicators trading access scale based on timing and differentiation,scientifically set the floor price of indicators trading,introduce incentive competition policies,and demonstrate the value of indicators trading.We will horizontally expand the policy on indicators trading,and promote legislation to strengthen legal empowerment and empowerment. |
