Spatial-Temporal Differentiation And Influencing Factors Of Arable Land In Northeast China From The Perspective Of Food Security

Food security is vital to the country’s economic development and people’s well-being,therefore,the government has taken a series of measures to control the spread of farmland non-food,to ensure national food security.Cultivated land is the foundation of grain production,the amount of cultivated land directly affects the grain output,and the hidden loss of cultivated land grain production capacity is more important.With the continuous advancement of social development,how to effectively deal with the problem of farmland non-grain has become an important topic that the government,academia and the public pay common attention to.Fundamentally speaking,the issue of arable land unfancying is a complex relationship.It is necessary to consider both short-term economic benefits and long-term food security.Therefore,how to effectively coordinate the relationship between cultivated land unfancying and farmers’economic benefits while ensuring food security has become the most critical issue to carry out research on cultivated land unfancying.At present,there are few researches on the degraying of root cultivated land in major grain producing areas.This paper will break through the traditional research methods to explore the spatial distribution equilibrium of the degraying of cultivated land with the help of stata software,and use Geoda and Arc GIS software to more intuitively depict the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the degraying of cultivated land.GIS spatial analysis tool and statistical analysis model were used to identify the driving factors and explore the influence of each factor on the farmland ungraining.Under the background of food security,the research of farmland non-grain in Northeast China has made the following exploration.With food security as the core,the research aims to deeply explore the situation of non-grain cultivated land in Northeast China,strengthen food production management,and ensure the long-term stability of national food security.This paper takes Northeast China,a major grain producing area,as the research area,and uses socio-economic statistics and geospatial data to explore the spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land ungrain in Northeast China from 2005 to 2020,and identify the driving factors of cultivated land ungrain in order to provide scientific reference for the control of cultivated land ungrain in Northeast China and even other parts of the country.Research methods:Theil index,spatial autocorrelation model and geographical weighted regression model,etc.,and the following research results are obtained:(1)During the research period,the rate of farmland non-grain utilization decreased slightly in Northeast China,and the non-grain utilization was mainly mild.In 2020,the ungrain area of cultivated land in Northeast China will be 2.67×10~6hm~2,accounting for 8.6%of the total cultivated land sown.The rate of degraining was higher in the west and lower in the east,and the degree of degraining in eastern Mongolia and Liaoning was higher than that in Jilin and Heilongjiang.(2)It was found that the cultivated non-food crops in Northeast China were mainly oil,vegetables,melons and fruits,tobacco and other crops(sugar crops,Chinese medicinal materials,hemp crops and green feed crops,etc.),among which vegetables and oil crops accounted for the highest proportion,accounting for more than 60%.The planting area of melon,fruit and tobacco accounted for the smallest proportion,maintaining about 10%.(3)Theil index of cultivated land degrainization increased significantly in Northeast China from 0.139 in 2005 to 0.320 in 2020,and the spatial distribution difference of cultivated land degrainization showed an expanding trend.The intra-regional and inter-regional Theil index increased synchronously with the overall Theil index,and the contribution rate of inter-group gap increased significantly,indicating that most of the growth of the overall Theil index came from the increase of inter-group gap,and the spatial imbalance of non-food distribution between Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was intensified.The unbalance of cultivated land was different in different regions,which showed a significant increase in Jilin Province,Heilongjiang Province and Liaoning Province,and a decreasing trend in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia.(4)The cultivated land in Northeast China showed significant spatial agglomeration and spatial correlation,and the spatial agglomeration types were mainly high and low.From 2005 to2020,the EBI of cultivated land in Northeast China showed a fluctuating growth trend,increasing from 0.19 in 2005 to 0.43 in 2020,with a peak value of 0.54 in 2015.(5)Under the influence of multiple factors such as nature,economy and agricultural production conditions,the driving factors of cultivated land non-grainization in Northeast China showed significant spatial heterogeneity.Multiple parameters showed that GWR model had higher goodness of fit than OLS model,and its explanatory ability was enhanced.The per capita area of cultivated land has the strongest driving effect on cultivated land ungrainization,and other influencing factors are also important factors of cultivated land ungrainization.(6)Research conclusion:The control of cultivated land ungrainized in Northeast China is better,the degree of ungrainized land is reduced,but the ungrainized land area is still large.In view of the current situation of ungrainable arable land in Northeast China,it is suggested that functional areas of grain production should be refined,dynamic monitoring mechanism of ungrainable arable land should be established,subsidies for grain crop producers should be increased,and agricultural resources allocation should be optimized to enable structural adjustment of agricultural production.