| In the context of the spread of COVID-19 and complex changes in the economic environment,it has become an urgent problem for the whole society to prevent the "non-food" of cultivated land and strictly safeguard the lifeline of food security.This thesis takes Zhejiang Province as the research area,and on the basis of comprehensive review of relevant literature at home and abroad,based on the theory of cost-benefit,sustainable development and farmer’s behavior,combined with the spatial correlation,analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the phenomenon of farmland "non-grain" in Zhejiang Province.Furthermore,supplemented by data such as economic level,production conditions,policy factors and resource endowment,9 variables were selected to build an index system.The individual fixed effect model was used to estimate the impact of each variable,and the robustness of the model was tested.Finally,according to the research results,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,in order to provide basic data support and reference basis for policy formulation for Zhejiang Province to effectively control farmland "non-grain" and ensure food security.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows: in terms of land use,the stock of cultivated land resources in Zhejiang Province at present is small,the grain production on the whole shows a downward trend,and the per capita grain utilization decreases year by year,lower than the national average level and the gap is expanding.The growing area of cash crops is positively correlated with the income.In terms of the time evolution trend,the level of cultivated land "ungrain" in Zhejiang Province experienced three stages:straight rise,step decline and overall stability after a small decline.In terms of spatial evolution trend,the phenomenon of "non-grain" in east and west of Zhejiang Province is expanding rapidly.Spatial agglomeration has a significant positive spatial correlation,but it is gradually weakening.Multiple linear regression model has good goodness of fit.Economic,production conditions and policy factors have significant influence on the level of cultivated land "non-grain" in Zhejiang Province,while the influence of resource endowment conditions is not significant. |
