Statistical Research On Grain Virtual Cultivated Land Import Trade In China

China is facing serious problems such as shortage of cultivated land quantity and decline of cultivated land quality,and the ecological state of cultivated land directly threatens China’s food security.The food security problem caused by the shortage of cultivated land resources has become one of the main reasons restricting the ecological sustainable development in China.Cultivated land resources are essential and vital natural resources for the development of a country.Today,the security situation of China’s arable land resources is extremely serious.In 2019,the per capita arable land in China reached 0.09 hectares,while the global per capita arable land area reached 0.23 hectares.China’s per capita arable land area only accounts for 39%of the global average level.At the international level,the security of cultivated land is an important strategic issue of international development,and promoting the sustainable development of cultivated land resources is a long-term way to ensure food security.As a country with scarce arable land resources,it should actively participate in international grain trade and implement virtual arable land import strategy.Virtual farmland import strategy refers to a country or a region of cultivated land resources intensive products imported from other countries or regions,to save the domestic part of cultivated land resource,it refers to import from other countries or regions in the form of virtualization of cultivated land resource,it is in this way can effectively relieve the shortage of arable land resources at the present stage in China the status quo,It can also be used as the necessary supplement to adjust China’s grain supply and demand.This paper firstly combs and studies the relevant literature and theoretical basis to provide theoretical basis for the subsequent analysis.Secondly,based on the current situation of cultivated land resources,the current situation of virtual cultivated land import trade and the forecast of future virtual cultivated land import,this paper demonstrates the necessity of implementing virtual cultivated land import trade from the current situation and future of virtual cultivated land import of grain,and then discusses the feasibility of filling the gap of grain production and demand through international trade.In the end,this paper proposes a plan for the scale and structure of China’s grain import trade in the next five years from the perspective of the virtual cultivated land import saving and the structure of the importing country.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)the cultivated land resources of major grain producing areas in our country at present is in a state of unsustainable use of virtual farmland foreign trade food most of the year in the form of virtual farmland net imports of soybeans were the main varieties of imported,wheat,corn and rice also shows the tendency of net imports in recent years,virtual farmland in 2017 net imports accounted for 39%of the arable land,It has certain practical significance to promote the sustainable development of ecological environment.(2)The virtual cultivated land import dependence of corn,wheat and rice in China is in the safe range,while that of soybean is in the dangerous range.The import dependence of soybean increases the overall import dependence of grain.If soybean data is excluded,the import dependence of virtual cultivated land of grain in China is at a reasonable level,but the import structure of virtual cultivated land is unbalanced,and the source countries of cultivated land import are concentrated.(3)Based on the prediction of grain supply and demand and virtual cultivated land import trade volume,the gap between soybean supply and demand is the largest,wheat has a small gap between supply and demand,and corn and rice supply is sufficient.According to the forecast results,if the grain self-sufficiency rate is 90%,the four kinds of virtual cultivated land imports in the next five years will reach 60～80 million hectares.(4)This paper analyzes the feasibility of implementing the virtual farmland import strategy from three aspects:the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserve,the availability of international grain market and the policy of "going out" of agriculture.(5)Based on the forecast of China’s future import volume of virtual cultivated land and the analysis of the structure of the source countries of virtual cultivated land import,this paper makes a reasonable plan for the scale and structure of grain import in the future,and provides an executable grain import trade scheme.The innovation of this paper is that the concept of virtual cultivated land is extended to international grain trade,and the import strategy of grain trade in the next five years is planned from the perspective of the import of virtual cultivated land and the structure of the source countries of virtual cultivated land import,which has made a certain contribution to the implementation of the strategy of China’s grain import trade in the future.