Study On The Spatial Pattern And Driving Mechanisms Of Non-grain Production On Cultivated Land

Ensuring food security is the key foundation for maintaining economic and social stability.Although China has achieved basic self-sufficiency in food production in recent years,the supply-demand balance of grain remains in a tight balance,and the structural contradictions are very prominent,resulting in a continuous increase in grain imports.At the same time,many areas have experienced serious non-grain use of cultivated land,which has led to a rapid reduction in the area of grain crops and intensified the hidden losses of grain productivity.Currently,research on non-grain use of cultivated land mainly focuses on larger scales such as the national and provincial levels,while research on the county-level scales within the main grain-producing regions is relatively scarce,and the driving mechanisms are mainly analyzed from single perspectives such as natural,social,and policy factors.Based on a review of domestic and foreign policies and mechanisms for protecting cultivated land and research on non-grain use,this study focused on the issue of non-grain use at the county-level scale within the main grain-producing regions.The research area was Xintai City,Taian,Shandong Province,the city is divided into three regions: central urban area,suburban towns,and other towns.Based on the remote sensing image interpretation data and land use related data,and based on the understanding of the current situation of farmland resources,Calculate the area and ratio of non-grain cultivated land and visualize it to clarify the spatial distribution status of non-grain cultivated land;Later,taking administrative villages as the research unit,spatial auto-correlation analysis was used to further explore the spatial pattern differentiation of non-grain rate of cultivated land;And a driving factor indicator system is constructed by comprehensively considering three factors: natural conditions,socio-economic factors,and policy control.The OLS model is used for indicator screening,and the GWR model is used to deconstruct the non-grain driven mechanism from a spatial perspective.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The non-grain cultivated land area in Xintai City is 16730.33 hectares,and the non-grain conversion rate in the city is 19.68%.The non-grain conversion rate in the central urban area,suburban towns,and other towns is gradually increasing,reaching 14.20%,18.04%,and 21.59%,respectively;The areas with high non grain rates involve other townships located mostly in hilly and mountainous areas,as well as a small number of towns and streets closer to urban areas.The areas with low non grain rates are mainly in the central and western plains.Non-grain utilization mainly includes planting cash crop and developing forestry and fruit industry.(2)From the results of spatial auto-correlation analysis,it can be seen that the global Moran index of the non-grain rate of cultivated land in various administrative villages in Xintai City is about 0.312,indicating a significant positive spatial auto-correlation.The visualization results of the local Moran index indicate that the "high-high" clustering type involves 133 administrative villages,with high non-grain rates and small differences from neighboring units.These villages are mainly distributed in some suburban towns and hilly and mountainous areas in the central and western regions;The "low-low" clustering type involves127 administrative villages,with low non-grain rates and small differences from neighboring units.They are mainly distributed in relatively flat village areas in the central and western plains or hilly areas in the central and eastern regions;There are fewer villages showing significant negative spatial correlation,with only 78 villages.(3)Research on the driving mechanism shows that the five indicators of elevation,land regularity,distance from roads,per ca-pita income,and proportion of permanent basic farmland have good explanations for non grain rates at significance levels of 0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,and 0.05,respectively.The direction and magnitude of the impact of different indicators on the non-grain rate vary.According to the range of regression coefficients,elevation,plot regularity,and per ca-pita income have a positive impact on the non-grain rate,while distance from roads and the proportion of basic farmland have a negative impact on the non grain rate;According to the absolute value of the mean regression coefficient,the most profound impact is on the elevation above sea level in natural conditions.There are significant differences in the impact of different indicators on the non-grain rate at different spatial locations,with altitude having the most profound positive impact in the western region,plot regularity having the weakest positive impact in the central region,per ca-pita income having the deepest positive impact in the central urban area and suburban towns,and distance from roads having the greatest negative impact in the northern region,The proportion of basic farmland has the most significant negative impact on the non-grain rate of villages in the mountainous areas of northeast.The three factors of natural conditions,socio-economic factors,and policy control,as well as their coupled interactions,have a profound impact on the spatial pattern differentiation of the level of non-grain arable land in Xintai City.Based on the above conclusions,this study starts from the perspective of balancing the relationship between "stable food supply,public demand and income,and the development of characteristic agricultural industries".Following the principle of "zoning control",corresponding suggestions and measures are proposed for the issue of non-grain conversion of farmland in Xintai City,in order to provide a certain reference for the study of the spatial pattern and driving mechanism of non grain conversion at the county level within the main grain producing areas.