Construction Quality Risk Assessment Of Prefabricated Building Based On System Dynamics

The development of assembled buildings is being promoted by the state and its development scale is gradually expanding.At present,the contractor plays a leading role in the construction quality of assembled buildings in the most adopted construction general contracting model in China’s engineering construction field,and construction quality problems will adversely affect the cost and profit of the contractor,who should strictly control the construction quality problems to avoid unnecessary cost loss.Therefore,this paper evaluates the construction quality risks of assembled buildings from the perspective of general contractors.By analyzing and summarizing the existing construction quality management research results,this paper proposes a risk evaluation model based on the system dynamics method to evaluate the construction quality risk factors statically and dynamically,systematically considers the interaction relationship and conduction path between the risk factors,and uses the risk evaluation model to simulate the developed risk control measures,which proves the effectiveness of the method in risk evaluation.Based on the combing of assembly building,risk management theory and system dynamics methods,this paper analyzes and determines the risk identification and analysis methods of this paper.Forty-one construction quality risk factors based on the perspective of construction general contractor were identified by using literature research method,and then the risk factors were supplemented and revised by combining with expert interview method,and finally 24 risk factors were clarified and divided into five dimensions:personnel risk,management risk,mechanical material risk,component installation risk and environmental risk.A cause-and-effect feedback diagram was constructed using Vensim software,and the interactions between the risk factors were analyzed and determined.By clarifying the nature of variables in the cause-effect feedback diagram,the risk evaluation flow chart was drawn,the G1 method and entropy weighting method were used to assign comprehensive weights to the risk factors,and the system dynamics equations were prepared.Based on the actual case to evaluate the construction quality risk of assembly building,the key risk factors were identified using the sensitivity analysis method,and risk control measures were proposed in a targeted manner.The developed risk control measures were added to the risk assessment model for overall simulation,and the results showed that the implementation of risk control measures could effectively reduce the target risk.Through the above work,the evaluation study of construction quality risks of assembled buildings using the system dynamics method provides a theoretical reference for construction quality management by general contractors and new ideas for related research.