Potential Evaluation Of Urban Low-Efficiency Industrial Land Redevelopment Based On Scenario Planning

Under the realistic demand of "intensive land use",there is an obvious contradiction between the inefficiency of low-efficiency industrial land and the trend of urban intensive development,which has become the thing that every city must face for high-quality development.The transformation of urban development mode leads to the shortage of construction land in many cities.How to carry out benign spatial management of inefficient urban land has become a challenge for local governments.The redevelopment of inefficient industrial land will effectively promote the economical and intensive use of land,explore the optimization of urban industrial land utilization structure,and excavate the incremental value of inefficient industrial land in urban areas.Industrial land utilization potential is a concrete manifestation of evaluating the comprehensive utilization efficiency of industrial land.Literature studies have found that the evaluation of low-efficiency industrial land potential is influenced by many external uncertain factors such as social economy,enterprise scale and planning adjustment.As a tool of multi-scenario planning,scenario planning can provide different planning results for possible scenarios in the future,so as to realize multiscenario decision-making under different development value orientation.In this thesis,scenario planning is used as the research method to construct "the framework of evaluation method for the redevelopment potential of inefficient industrial land based on scenario planning".The framework mainly includes four steps: evaluation of internal suitability of low-efficiency industrial land,identification of external driving force for redevelopment,scenario simulation of external potential for redevelopment,and scenario evaluation of potential for internal-external driving force.Based on the ArcGIS10.2,an empirical study was conducted on the low-efficiency industrial land in the downtown area of Xuzhou.Firstly,the thesis analyzes the distribution characteristics,spatial relationship and existing low efficiency industrial land in the central urban area of Xuzhou city.Starting from the internal and external driving forces influencing factors of low-efficiency industrial land,the internal driving forces combined with relevant literature and field research and selected seven indexes related to industrial land,including elevation factor,slope factor,water system factor,green space factor,water system factor,highway factor,highway factor and Poi factor,for land suitability analysis.The external driving force is based on the Operation Manual for Evaluation of the Economical and Intensive Use of Urban Construction Land in August 2015 and relevant literature and materials.It selects the status of land use structure,intensive use,land use compliance,operation status of land use enterprises,floor area price of newly built property units,cost of enterprise renewal and renovation,floor area price of existing property units,recognition and willingness of land holders enterprises,The nine influencing factors of Xuzhou’s territorial space development plan are divided into three scenarios,which are analyzed respectively for scale potential priority,economic potential priority and social potential priority.Finally,the internal and external driving factors are weighted to get the redevelopment potential zoning of low-efficiency industrial land under the influence of different scenarios.The results showed that the land suitability potential grade of low-efficiency industrial land decreased from east to west in the central urban area of Xuzhou city.The most unsuitable plots were mainly distributed in the northwest of the central urban area,and the percentage of land area and quantity was 12% and 15%,respectively.Based on the scale potential,economic potential and social potential priority internal and external driving force potential value zoning levels presented mixed and uneven distribution characteristics,the high potential zoning under the three scenarios was concentrated in No.3(High-tech District street),No.15(Damiao Street),and No.22(Pipa Street).Finally,the potential levels were arranged and combined to obtain 27 kinds of scenario combination schemes of redevelopment potential,which were divided into the first development unit,the first development unit and the general development unit for guidance.