Risk Decision-making Method Of Major Construction Engineering Technology Innovation Project From The Perspective Of Technology Readiness Level

Major construction projects(later collectively referred to as major projects)are public service products that provide good and convenient life for society and people under national and local strategic needs,but due to the high complexity generated by the interaction of major projects themselves and the environment,the construction process is often encounters plenty of engineering problems regarding schedule,safety and geological environment changes,etc.These problems indicate that major projects face extremely high construction risks,and Technological innovation is the key means to degrade engineering construction risks.However,existing research treats engineering construction risk and technology innovation risk as two separate issues,and it is not feasible to focus only on engineering construction risk demand and ignore technology innovation risk,or to think that technology innovation process is perfectly realized and ignore the docking with risk demand,which will lead to the decoupling of technology innovation and engineering construction.Technology readiness theory is a good risk control theory,and this paper intends to integrate it into the process of major engineering technology innovation,and establish a technology innovation risk decision-making method oriented to engineering construction risk prevention and control from the perspective of the interaction between engineering construction and technology innovation.In order to promote the extension and development of engineering construction risk management theory and technology innovation management theory,and to provide theoretical guidance and methodological support for major engineering technology innovation management under the complex management situation faced by major engineering technology innovation.This paper conducts research on the risk decision-making process of major engineering technology innovation projects,and the main research methods and processes are as follows.(1)Construct a model of major engineering technology innovation process,based on which the Integration Readiness Level(IRL)and evaluation content of major engineering technology innovation are proposed;analyze the risk evolution process of major engineering technology innovation based on IRL,identify innovation risk events and their influencing factors,and construct a risk causation index system through expert research;on this basis,establish a technology innovation risk by ISM method On the basis of this,a Bayesian network model is established through ISM method for evaluating the success probability of risk events.(2)Explain the interactive relationship between engineering construction risk and technological innovation risk,and propose the mapping matrix of technological capability leap demand index and technological innovation on the improvement of engineering construction risk prevention and control capability;establish a multi-attribute decision model of major engineering technological innovation projects based on prospect theory by synthesizing the aforementioned research;finally,take the decision-making process of anchor technology risk in deeply buried rock-burst tunnel as an example to verify the theory and method.The main research conclusions are:(1)The process of upgrading the readiness of major engineering technology innovation can be divided into three progressive stages of technical feasibility,engineering feasibility and economic feasibility.Combining these three progressive stages,five management tools are developed to evaluate the risks of the corresponding stages.(2)Interaction relationship between major engineering construction risks and technological innovation risks: engineering construction risks will have a pulling effect on technological innovation demand,while technological innovation can enhance engineering construction risk prevention and control capability.Usually the mapping matrix can establish the correspondence between the indicators of each dimension of technological innovation and the indicators of engineering construction risk prevention and control.(3)Considering the psychological preferences of decision makers,a multi-attribute risk decision model of major engineering technology innovation projects based on prospect theory is established and trial calculations are carried out with engineering cases,and the trial results show that the model established in this study has preliminary feasibility and applicability.