Research On Selection Of Substation Reactive Power Technical Improvement Project Based On Prospect Theory

The technological improvement project of power grid enterprises is an engineering project aimed at realizing the strategic development plan of China’s power grid system by means of power station equipment maintenance and power technology upgrading.At this stage,the optimization select management decision of power grid enterprises’ technical improvement projects does not comprehensively consider the project demand,comprehensive benefits and risk p revention and control,and most of them take objective data such as comparative economic cost as a simple project optimization select method,The optimization select process lacks the consideration of decision-makers’ subjective risk preference and effective data analysis methods.Based on this,this study transforms the project optimization select problem into a multi-attribute decision-making problem,constructs a set of optimization select model of substation reactive power technology improvement project,analyzes the optimization select example of substation reactive power technology improvement project in HZ City of Zhejiang State Grid,and obtains a set of optimization select and ranking results of Substation Reactive Power Technology improvement project supported by data and theory.Firstly,this paper focuses on how to carry out the optimization select decision-making of substation reactive power technical improvement project,and determines the optimization select process of power grid enterprises for technical improvement project.Through the research,summary and analysis of relevant literature at home and abroad,this paper discusses the two major problems of excessive subjectivity of decision-making and one-sided optimization select standards in the project optimization select process of power grid enterprises,and determines six indicators of economy,functionality,risk,urgency,feasibility and policy as the key factors of project optimization select,which provides a theoretical basis for the following research.Based on the five principles of index system construction,combined with the characteristics of substation reactive power technical improvement project,11 secondary indexes are selected from four levels: project risk prevention and control,project efficiency,project economic benefit and project social benefit,and the optimal index system of substation reactive power technical improvement project is constructed.Secondly,in order to solve the problem that power grid enterprises lack scientific ranking methods in the optimization select process of technological improvement projects,considering people’s irrational behavior in decision-making.This study is based on the prospect theory,and it introduces the risk aversion parameter to express the sensitivity of decision-makers in the face of risk loss.Also,it uses the entropy weight method to determine the attribute index weight.TODIM decision method is used to construct the optimization select model of substation reactive power technical improvement project.Finally,this paper takes four substation reactive power technical improvement projects in HZ City of Zhejiang State Grid as research cases for empirical analysis of optimization select and ranking,and obtains the optimal project scheme under different risk avoidance attitude through the sensitivity analysis of parameters and the comparison of the ranking results of other multi-attribute decision-making theories,which provides reference suggestions for Zhejiang power grid company.In the process of production and construction of power grid enterprises,a reasonable and effective project optimization selection can improve the investment efficiency and management level of enterprises.This paper takes the prospect theory as the core to study the optimization select system of substation reactive power technical improvement projects,which can provide theoretical support and reference for power grid enterprises in the optimization select decision-making of other similar technical improvement projects.